XAUUSD
Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
People are thinking that the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates in September. Because of this, the price of gold is still falling. This week, economic information from the US and comments from the Federal Reserve will be very important in deciding what people think about the market in the short term and what will happen for the XAU/USD. Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, will speak today, which might give hints about where US monetary policy is going. Today, US will release the Producer Price Index (PPI), and on Wednesday, they will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Technical Analysis:
The mid-term trend is supported by the 50-day MA line at $2269.33. The short-term range is between $2431.59 and $2277.34. Currently, the market is trading weakly around the pivot point of $2340. The price of gold is staying above the critical 100-period EMA on the 4-hour chart. The upward momentum is supported by the 14-day RSI. The key support level is around $2325, which is where the 100-period EMA is located.
EURUSD
Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD pair is staying just below $1.0800, and not moving much. Other major currency pairs are also not moving much because there aren't any new hints about which way they should go. Central banks have kept their money policies the same for longer than expected because inflation is still not matching what they want, and the job market is still pretty busy. Investors are waiting for the US to release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday to see if it gives them any clues about what might happen next.
Technical Analysis:
The key resistance levels are at $1.08115 and $1.08464, which might challenge a potential upward trend. On the other hand, support levels are at $1.07240 and $1.06897. Both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are moving above the pivot point around $1.07500, which strengthens the importance of the current levels.
For 4-hour chart, EUR/USD is moving up and staying above all its moving averages. The 20 SMA is going up faster than the longer ones, which shows a positive trend. Also, technical indicators are showing increasing momentum at positive levels, suggesting that the upward trend might continue.
GBPUSD
Prediction: Decrease
Fundamental Analysis:
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said he feels hopeful about lowering interest rates, mentioning positive news about inflation. Before the weekend, some Federal Reserve officials made strong statements, which limited the rise of GBP/USD. On Tuesday morning in Europe, the UK's Office for National Statistics will release information about the job market. It will give some direction about GBP/USD.
Technical Analysis:
Resistance levels are set at $1.26328 and $1.26965, which might make it hard for GBP/USD to go up. Support level is at $1.24459, followed by $1.24032. The 200-day SMA provides a barrier at 1.2540. If GBP/USD goes above this level and holds it as support, the next target could be 1.2590-1.2600.
US Oil
Prediction: Decrease
Fundamental Analysis:
Despite increased tensions in the Middle East following the US decision to halt certain weapons deliveries to Israel due to concerns about the situation in Rafah, US oil prices have not gone up. Instead, crude oil prices are still falling. At the same time, there is growing speculation that OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) may not reverse its voluntary production cuts at the upcoming meeting in June.
Technical Analysis:
On Monday, the price of WTI crude oil kept falling. Last week, it didn't reach the upper limit of the downward channel at $80.20. At the same time, the 14-RSI is staying about the same, suggesting the price might move sideways. Right now, there aren't clear signals about which way the market will go in the short term, but it's still suggested to sell when prices are high.
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