XAUUSD
Prediction: Decrease
Fundamental Analysis:
Federal Reserve officials are being careful about reducing the interest rates. This cautious approach caused a slight increase in the value of the US dollar and a decrease in the price of gold. If the US dollar continues to strengthen, inflation is expected to return to the ideal level of 2% before the policy shifts towards normalization. This would weaken the attractiveness of XAU/USD. Speculation about a ceasefire between Israel and Palestine has not made any progress, which is supporting the gold price.
Technical Analysis:
The price of gold has been moving between $2,280 and $2,330 for over a week, showing that market participants are uncertain. The precious metal is still stuck near the 20-EMA of $2,314.60, indicating there will be consolidation in the future. The 14-RSI is oscillating between 40.00 and 60.00, suggesting a sharp contraction in volatility.
EURUSD
Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
European benchmark stock indices reached historic highs due to companies reporting strong and continuing profits, which uplifted the market. The Swedish central bank lowered its main interest rate by 0.25% points to 3.75%, marking its first rate cut in eight years. The STOXX 600 index rose by 0.49%; the German DAX30 index rose by 0.48%; the French CAC40 index rose by 0.84%; and the UK's FTSE 100 index rose by 0.34%. The European Central Bank is the most suitable among major central banks to begin lowering interest rates. This boosted investor confidence in the Euro, driving its increase.
Technical Analysis:
The pivot point for the EUR/USD is at $1.07382, with resistance levels at $1.07778, $1.08124, and $1.08533. Conversely, direct support lies at $1.06951, with additional support at $1.06512 and $1.06119. The 50-day SMA is closely positioned at $1.07338, slightly below the pivot point, while the 200-day MA is slightly higher at 1.07462 US dollars.
USDJPY
Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
Despite threats from Japanese authorities to intervene to support the yen, the yen still fell. On the second day of meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda expressed stronger sentiments regarding the yen. Kazuo stated that if currency depreciation significantly affects prices, the central bank might take monetary policy actions.
Technical Analysis:
Recently, the USD/JPY has been moving in an upward channel, as seen in the 4-hours chart. The price is attempting to break the resistance level of the upward channel. The 14-RSI is nearing to reach the 70% level, indicating that the USD/JPY still has enough strength to attempt breaking the resistance point. If it fails to break through, the price may retreat to lower levels.
USOIL
Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
According to the weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which showed a decrease in U.S. inventories, suggesting a tightening market supply, oil prices increased. The data revealed that US oil inventories decreased by 1.36 million barrels last week, a larger drop than market expectations. As a result, WTI crude oil is now back above $78 per barrel.
Technical Analysis:
In the short term, there's a possibility of a continued upward rebound, especially considering the significant drop last week and the technical adjustment needed. Therefore, for day trading, we can consider placing long positions around the $79.5, targeting around $80. It's suggested to focus mainly on buying on dips, with short positions on rebounds as a secondary strategy. Short-term resistance levels to watch are around $79.6-$80, while short-term support levels are around $77-$76.5.
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