In April, China's exports are anticipated to rebound after a significant decline in March, although the expected growth is projected to be modest due to challenges such as weak global demand and excess production capacity. Economists predict a 1.5% year-on-year increase in outbound shipments, contrasting with the 7.5% decline recorded in the previous month.
Despite the faster-than-expected economic growth in the first quarter, indicators such as export figures, consumer inflation, producer prices, and bank lending for March suggest a potential slowdown. Additionally, the ongoing property market crisis is persisting, prompting calls for further policy support.
Interpreting China's economic data has become increasingly complex, evident in the diverse forecasts from various analysts. While Goldman Sachs forecasts a 5.5% growth in exports, Societe Generale predicts a 3.4% decline, and economists at Peking University anticipate a 5.7% fall.
Throughout last year, Chinese exporters faced challenges due to high interest rates dampening foreign demand. The lack of urgency among major central banks to reduce borrowing costs may exacerbate these challenges, leading manufacturers to further lower prices to compete for market share.
Importantly, South Korean exports to China surged by 9.9% in April, indicating potential growth in China's imports. Analysts are divided on the extent of this increase, with forecasts ranging from 1.3% to 9.8%.
Overall, the median estimate suggests China's trade surplus for April could reach $77.5 billion. The official data is set to be released on Thursday.
Paraphrasing text from "Reuters" all rights reserved by the original author.
