XAUUSD
Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
China’s central bank expanded its gold reserves for an 18th straight month in April, extending a buying spree that helped drive the precious metal to a record high.Bullion held by the People’s Bank of China rose by 60,000 troy ounces last month, according to official data released Tuesday. That’s equivalent to about 1.87 tons, and takes total holdings to 2264.3 tons.
Technical Analysis:
Gold (XAU/USD) took a step back on Tuesday following Monday’s solid performance, slipping by around 0.4% to settle near $2,315. Despite recent fluctuations to the upside and downside, the precious metal has not really gone anywhere in the past two weeks, with volatility shrinking over the period in question in a possible sign of consolidation and traders waiting for new catalysts before reengaging. Technical: The market consolidation is not likely to end until prices either push past resistance at $2,355 or breach support at $2,280. Should resistance be overcome, the focus will turn to $2,415. Additional gains from this point forward may lead to renewed interest in the all-time high. Meanwhile, a break of support could trigger a fall towards a key Fibonacci floor at $2,260. Below this area, the spotlight will be on $2,225
EURUSD
Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
On Tuesday, hawkish comments from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari have bolstered the US Dollar, consequently weakening the EUR/USD pair. Kashkari said that the most probable scenario is for rates to remain unchanged for an extended period. In the Eurozone, Retail Sales (MoM) surged by 0.8% in March, rebounding from the upwardly revised 0.3% decline in February. This exceeded the expected increase of 0.6% Additionally, Retail Sales (YoY) increased by 0.7% compared to the revised 0.5% drop in February. This indicates the first growth in retail since September 2022, signaling a positive shift in consumer spending trends.
Technical Analysis:
EUR/USD dipped slightly on Tuesday after a third failed attempt to break above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at 1.0790, an area of strong resistance. Prices subsequently edged towards support at 1.0750. Maintaining this technical floor is essential to prevent a deeper retracement; failure to do so might lead to a move towards 1.0725 and possibly even 1.0695.
GBPUSD
Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
Rates aren’t expected to go anywhere this month, with the key Bank Rate tipped to stay at 5.25%. So, assuming that expectation is met, the market focus will be on the voting split on the nine-member Monetary policy behind the decision and its accompanying commentary. The BoE has been known to produce the odd three-way split, with members voting for hikes, cuts, and no action.
However, this time we’ll likely get at most a two-way, with no one backing higher rates. Inflation in the United Kingdom remains well above the BoE’s government-set 2% target, but it is trending lower. The latest print, for March, came in at 3.2% , which was the lowest for well over two years. Monetary tightening already in place is clearly working, if slowly, and the UK’s sluggish economy certainly doesn’t need any more monetary braking.
Technical Analysis:
GBP/USD also fell on Tuesday, nearly breaching the 1.2500 handle. A decisive drop below this threshold in the upcoming days could amplify bearish pressure, potentially prompting a retest of technical support near 1.2430. While prices might find stability around these levels during a pullback before a rebound, a breakdown could pave the way for a retrenchment toward the psychological 1.2300 mark.
BTCUSD
Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
According to a 13F-HR filing on May 7, quantitative trading firm Susquehanna International Group purchased more than $1 billion worth of shares of Bitcoin BTCUSD exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the first quarter of 2024.The crypto market is currently buzzing with anticipation as Bitcoin options traders position themselves for what they foresee as a “substantial price rally” in September.Particularly, the derivatives market is expressing confidence, with a significant number of traders betting on Bitcoin surpassing the $100,000 mark
Technical Analysis:
Analyzing the 4-hour chart reveals the bitcoin price has retraced its previous day gains and it is looking for support level around $62500. Once the price consolidates around $62500 and $65290 area, we can look for price to break through and reach $67000 to ATH. However if the price fails below key ~$61000 area, then we will look at the bitcoin price to go lower to $56500.
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