- GBP/USD pushed above 1.2700 in tepid Wednesday trading.
- US midweek holiday crimped market volumes, hobbling flows.
- BoE expected to hold rates, investors to look for shifts in votes.
GBP/USD elbowed its way firmly above 1.2700 in quiet Wednesday trading as GBP traders gear up for Thursday’s latest outing from the Bank of England (BoE), which is expected to keep rates on hold at 5.25% even as UK economic data continues to miss the mark, but not badly enough to spark institutional fears of an outright recession.
Forex Today: Attention shifts to the BoE and US data
Wednesday markets were throttled after US markets shuttered in observation of the midweek Juneteenth holiday, keeping broad-market volumes on the low side and giving US Dollar counterparties a chance to grind out slim gains. American markets will return to the action on Thursday, just in time for a fresh print in week-on-week US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended June 14. Median market forecasts are expecting new US jobless benefits seekers to ease slightly to 235K from the previous 242K, but still hold above the four-week running average of 227K.
Before that, the BoE’s latest rate call and the UK central bank’s updated Monetary Policy Report will be released during the London market session. Markets broadly expect the BoE to hold interest rates at 5.25%. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted seven-to-two to keep rates on hold, and market participants will be looking for any changes in the voting figures. Seven MPC members are currently forecast to continue voting in favor of a rate hold and two hopefuls looking for an early rate cut.
GBP/USD technical outlook
The Cable continues to grind stubbornly higher after hitting a near-term low last week around 1.2660. GBP bidding momentum may have run into a hard barrier at the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.2725, and a hard stall could drag bids down towards 1.2650.
Despite a lack of near-term momentum, daily candles remain firmly planted above a technical floor at the 50-day EMA near 1.2675. A heavy supply zone above 1.2800 is weighing on long-term bullish potential, with the bottom end held up by the 200-day EMA at 1.2585.
