- Oil sinks back below $80, snapping technical support.
- Sluggish demand comes back into play as increasing bond yields risk Fed delaying the initial rate cut.
- The US Dollar Index further retreats below 105.00 after easing US GDP reading.
Oil prices are retreating further on Thursday after bond traders on Wednesday took all asset classes for a rough ride. This week, the US bond market has seen quite a few big bond allocations, with bond traders starting to demand higher yields. This resurgence drove the rate differential wider between the US Dollar (USD) against other currencies and sent equities nosediving across the globe.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) eats into its Wednesday gains after a softer US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading. With a softer print from the previous reading, the idea changes that the US performance is easing further. Under the hood, it became clear that the consumer is being hurted at current levels.
At the time of writing, Crude Oil (WTI) trades at $78.32 and Brent Crude at $82.64
Oil news and market movers: Softer summer
- Saudi Aramco might be set to reduce its official selling price by 40 cents per barrel for July sales to Asia, according to a Bloomberg survey.
- Bloomberg Intelligence Economist Ziad Daoud reports that more downside might be seen in Oil prices with US markets seeing ample supply while demand is weakening and war risks in both the Middle East and Ukraine are starting to fade.
- ConocoPhillips announced on Wednesday that it had agreed to buy Marathon Oil in a deal worth $22.5 billion, Reuters reports.
- Several traders and banks are reporting risk for more downturn should markets start to price out any rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve for 2024. A pickup in Oil demand is not foreseen until at least the first quarter of 2025, Reuters reports.
- The Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its weekly Crude Stockpile Change numbers for this week on Thursday. The previous number was a build of 1.825 million barrels, and a drawdown of 1.9 million barrels is expected for this week.
Oil Technical Analysis: Markets are counting on that Fed cut(s)
Oil prices are sensitive, to say the least. The recent recovery was built on assumptions that interest rates are easing and that the Fed would cut at least once this year, achieving a soft landing for the US economy and holding up Oil demand.None of those assumptions look valid after the bond massacre on Wednesday, when bond traders said they had enough of all these US debt issuances and demanded more yield before buying. With doubts about an initial cut for 2024, markets are fearing that customers will not be able to consume and spend as much as they are doing now, which means that demand for Oil will decline. This leads to a lower repricing under these conditions.
First, the Simple Moving Averages (SMA) need to be regained under control. The 100-day SMA at $79.01 and the 200-day SMA at $79.57 are the first levels on the upside. Next, the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $81.27 and the descending trendline at $81.75 are an area with a lot of resistance where any recovery rally could pause. Once broken through there, the road looks quite open to head to $87.12.
On the downside, the $76.00 marker is coming back into focus with the $75.27 level playing a crucial role if traders still want to have an option to head back to $80.00. Should that $75.27 pivotal level snap, expect to see a risk-full nosedive move that could sprint all the way down to $68, below $70.00.
US WTI Crude Oil: Daily Chart
