US Crude is showing marginal movement on Tuesday, trading at $41.62 a barrel in the European session. In the US, today’s key events are CPI and Core CPI. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its October policy meeting, and the markets will be keenly interested in the comments of policymakers regarding a rate hike.
The recent terror attacks in Paris, which killed 132 people and injured another 350, sent shock waves around the world and hurt market risk sentiment in the process. Major currencies such as the euro and Japanese yen have fallen in recent days, but oil has not joined the downward parade, and posted gains on Monday. Still, oil prices have dropped steadily in the past two weeks, as weak global demand and high production by oil producers has resulted in a huge oversupply, which has weighed on oil prices.
The markets are keeping a close eye on the Federal Reserve, as speculation has increased that the Fed will begin a series of rate hikes, commencing in December. Fed Chair Janet Yellen has called the December meeting a “live possibility” of a rate hike. With the US economy close to full employment and many economic indicators pointing upwards, one of the last pieces in the puzzle is consumer inflation, which will be released later on Tuesday. The October CPI and Core CPI reports could play a crucial factor in determining whether the Fed makes a move and raises rates next month, and should be treated by traders as market-movers. Strong CPI readings could win over Fed policymakers who are concerned about whether the economy is strong enough to withstand a rate hike, while figures below the forecast would dampen expectations of a rate move before 2016.
WTI/USD Fundamentals
Tuesday (Nov. 17)
- 13:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.2%
- 13:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%
- 14:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate. Estimate 77.5%
- 14:15 US Industrial Production. Estimate 0.1%
- 15:00 US Mortgage Delinquencies
- 15:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index. Estimate 64 points
- 21:00 US TIC Long-Term Purchases
Upcoming Key Events
Wednesday (Nov. 18)
- 13:30 US Building Permits. Estimate 1.15M
- 19:00 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
*Key releases are highlighted in bold
*All release times are GMT
WTI/USD for Tuesday, November 17, 2015
WTI/USD November 17 at 11:00 GMT
WTI/USD 41.62 H: 42.02 L: 41.43
XAU/USD Technical
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 35.09 | 37.75 | 39.87 | 42.59 | 44.30 | 47.04 |
- WTI/USD has shown limited movement in the Asian and European sessions.
- 39.87 is providing support.
- 42.59 is a weak line of resistance.
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 39.87, 37.75 and 35.09
- Above: 42.59, 44.30, 47.04 and 49.06
