USD/CAD

USD/CAD trades in the low-1.10 range in Monday’s North American session. The Canadian dollar has showed some surprising strength, gaining about two cents in the past week. In the US, Chicago PMI was well off the estimate, dropping to an eight-month low. As well, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen will address an event in Chicago.

Canadian GDP bounced back after a decline in January, posting a healthy gain of 0.5%. This edged above the estimate of 0.4%. This is the best showing we’ve seen from GDP since last August, and has helped the Canadian dollar continue its rally.

US Unemployment Claims continued to impress last week. The key indicator dropped to 311 thousand, its lowest level in over three months. The estimate was 326 thousand, marking the fourth straight week that the reading has come in below the forecast. The news was not as good from Pending Home Sales, with a reading of -0.8%. This disappointed the markets, which had expected a small gain of 0.1%. Earlier in the week, New Home Sales also lost ground in February, and concern is bound to increase about the health of the US housing industry.

Ukraine’s economy is in shambles as a result of the four-month political crisis. Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk acknowledged that the country is on the edge of bankruptcy, and GDP could drop by 3% this year. However, help is on the way. The IMF is set to sign a two-year loan of up to $18 billion, and the EU has offered a package of EUR 11 billion. Ukraine has already received two bailouts from the IMF since 2008, and will have to implement budget cuts and other measures in order to receive the new package from the IMF.

USD/CAD for Monday, March 31, 2014

USD/CAD March 31 at 15:30 GMT

USD/CAD 1.1018 H: 1.106 L: 1.1003

USD/CAD Technical

• USD/CAD continues to lose ground on Monday. The pair touched a low of 1.003 in the European session.
• On the downside, there is strong pressure on the key line of 1.1000. There is stronger support at 1.0906, which is protecting the 1.09 level.
• 1.1094 continues to provide resistance. This line has strengthened as the Canadian dollar has moved higher.
• Current range: 1.1000 to 1.1094

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.1000, 1.0906, 1.0852 and 1.0775
• Above: 1.1094, 1.1177, 1.1319, 1.1496 and 1.1639

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is unchanged in Monday trade. This is not consistent with what we are seeing from the pair, as the Canadian dollar continues to post gains. The ratio has a slight majority of open long positions, indicating a slight trader bias to USD/CAD reversing its downward direction.

USD/CAD continues to lose ground. Will the pair push below the key 1.10 line? The US dollar remains under pressure in the North American session.

USD/CAD Fundamentals

• 12:30 Canadian GDP. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.5%.
• 13:45 US Chicago PMI. Estimate 59.2 points.
• 13:55 US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Speaks.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT