EUR/USD has started the new trading week quietly, as the pair trades slightly above the 1.37 line. It’s a quiet day on the release front, with just three events on the schedule. German Industrial Production weakened in March but still beat the estimate. Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence matched expectations. In the US, the day’s sole release is Consumer Credit.
On Friday, all eyes were on Non-Farm Payrolls, one of the most important economic indicators. The indicator rose nicely last in March, climbing to 192 thousand, compared to 175 thousand a month earlier. However, the markets were looking for more, with the estimate standing at 199 thousand. The Unemployment Rate also fell short of the estimate. Although these numbers were not as strong as hoped, the Federal Reserve is expected to continue trimming QE when it meets at the end of April.
German data continues to beat expectations, as the Eurozone’s largest economy continues to post respectable numbers. Industrial Production dropped to 0.4%, down from 0.8% a month earlier, but this edged above the estimate of 0.3%. Last week, German Retail Sales, Unemployment Change and Factory Orders all beat their estimates.
The Eurozone continues to struggle with weak inflation and a high euro, so there has been pressure on the ECB for some time now to take action. However, on Thursday the ECB opted to stand pat. The central bank kept interest rates at the ultra-low level of 0.25% and ECB chief Mario Draghi said that monetary easing remains a possibility, but clearly the ECB is in no rush to make any moves.
EUR/USD for Monday, April 7, 2014
EUR/USD April 7 at 9:50 GMT
EUR/USD 1.3719 H: 1.3720 L: 1.3697
EUR/USD Technical
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 1.3410 | 1.3585 | 1.3649 | 1.3786 | 1.3893 | 1.4000 |
- EUR/USD hovered close to the 1.37 line in the Asian session and has edged higher in European trading.
- 1.3649 continues to provide support. 1.3585 is the next support line.
- On the upside, 1.3786 has some breathing room with the euro trading at lower levels. The next line of resistance is 1.3893, which is protecting the 1.39 level.
- Current range: 1.3649 to 1.3786
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.3649, 1.3585, 1.3410 and 1.3335
- Above: 1.3786, 1.3893, 1.4000, 1.4149 and 1.4307
OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
EUR/USD ratio has posted gains in long positions on Monday, continuing the direction seen late last week. This is consistent with the pair’s current movement, as the euro has edged upwards. Short positions retain a strong majority, indicative of trader bias towards the dollar posting gains at the expense of the euro.
EUR/USD is not showing much movement in the European session, as the pair trades slightly above the 1.37 line. With no major US releases during the day, it could be an uneventful start to the week for the pair.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- 6:45 French Government Budget Balance. Actual -25.7B.
- 6:45 French Trade Balance. Exp. -4.9B. Actual -3.4B.
- 11:30 US NFIB Small Business Index. Estimate 92.3 points.
- 14:00 US JOLTS Job Openings. Estimate 3.99M.
- 11:30 US FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks.
- 11:30 US FOMC Member Charles Plosser Speaks.
*Key releases are highlighted in bold
*All release times are GMT
