The Canadian dollar continues to head lower on Friday. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2910, up 0.23% on the day. On the release front, there are no Canadian events on the schedule. In the US, the focus is on durable goods reports, with expectations of mixed results. Core durable goods orders is expected to climb to 0.5%, but the markets are braced for a decline of 1.3% from durable good orders. The US will also release UoM Consumer Sentiment, is expected to remain unchanged at 98.8 points.
The Federal Reserve released the minutes from its May meeting. In the minutes, some Fed policymakers said they favored removing the phrase that “the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative”. Not surprisingly, the minutes didn’t shed light on the Fed’s plans, saying that another rate hike would occur “soon”, on the assumption that the US economy continues to perform as expected. Still, a quarter-point rate hike in August is virtually a given, with the CME Group setting the odds of a hike at 95 percent. This would mark a second hike in 2018. After that? The Fed projection remains at three rates hikes in 2018, but some analysts are predicting four increases this year.
USD/CAD Fundamentals
Thursday (May 24)
- 4:15 US FOMC Member William Dudley Speaks
- 8:30 Canadian Corporate Profits. Actual 2.7%
- 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 220K. Actual 234K
- 9:00 US HPI. Estimate 0.5%. Actual 0.1%
- 10:00 US Existing Home Sales. Estimate 5.56M. Actual 5.42M
- 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 92B
- 10:35 US FOMC Member Rafael Bostic Speaks
Friday (May 25)
- 8:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 0.5%
- 8:30 US Durable Goods Orders. Estimate -1.3%
- 9:20 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
- 10:00 US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 98.8
- 10:00 US Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
- 11:45 US FOMC Member Rafael Bostic Speaks
*All release times are DST
*Key events are in bold
USD/CAD for Thursday, May 24, 2018
USD/CAD, May 24 at 10:20 DST
Open: 1.2835 High: 1.2920 Low: 1.2829 Close: 1.2894
USD/CAD Technical
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 1.2687 | 1.2757 | 1.2850 | 1.2943 | 1.3015 | 1.3125 |
USD/CAD was flat in the Asian session. The pair posted gains in European trade and continues to move higher in North American trade
- 1.2850 has switched to a support role as USD/CAD has moved higher
- 1.2943 is the next resistance line
- Current range: 1.2850 to 1.2943
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.2850, 1.2757, 1.2687 and 1.2527
- Above: 1.2943, 1.3015 and 1.3125
OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
USD/CAD ratio continues to show gains towards short positions. Currently, short positions have a majority (61%), indicative of trader bias towards USD/CAD reversing directions and moving lower.
