EURUSD
Fundamental Perspective
The EUR/USD pair closed its third consecutive week with little movement, hovering below 1.0800, and has consistently encountered resistance near 1.0900. Despite various significant economic events, the pair must still find a clear direction, reflecting investor uncertainty about future economic conditions.
The European Central Bank (ECB) trimmed interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the primary refinancing operations rate to 4.25% and the deposit facility to 3.75%. However, the ECB's stance was considered hawkish, as President Christine Lagarde hinted that further cuts might be delayed until September, contingent on forthcoming data. The ECB revised its GDP growth forecast for 2024, slightly down for 2025 and unchanged for 2026, while raising inflation projections to 2.5% for 2024 and 2.2% for 2025.
In the United States, employment data was pivotal. April job openings fell to 8.059 million, and the ADP report showed the private sector added 152,000 jobs in May, both figures below expectations. However, the nonfarm payrolls report surpassed forecasts with 272,000 new jobs, highlighting a tight labor market and persistent inflation. It diminished the prospects for Federal Reserve rate cuts, strengthening the US Dollar against the Euro. While policymakers have clarified their positions, further data is necessary to illuminate the future economic path.
EURUSD Forecast Technical Perspective
On the weekly chart, the last candle closed as a hammer with a red body and upper wick, reflecting bearish pressure on the asset price, especially after a doji. The next candle might be another red one, supporting the circumstances.
The price floats just below the EMA 200 line on the daily chart, reflecting fresh bearish pressure. It indicates the next move toward the nearest support of 1.0705, followed by the next support near 1.0608.
Meanwhile, if the price surpasses the EMA 200 line, it may reach the primary resistance of 1.0897, followed by the next resistance near 1.1104.
