Harker speaks at a monetary policy conference:
- If my economic forecast plays out, I think one cut would be appropriate this year
- Two cuts or none also 'quite possible' depending on data
- More data is essential to come to a decision on rate cuts given choppiness so far this year
- Over the ensuing months I will continue to closely monitor data on inflation, labor markets and economic activity
- Keeping rates where they are for a bit longer will help get inflation down and mitigate upside risks
- Latest inflation data quite promising but falls short of confidence needed
- Long-term stubbornness of shelter inflation remains a concern, as does service sector inflation
- Last week's CPI data very welcome but overall progress on inflation in recent months has been modest
- I still forecast slowing but above-trend growth, modest rise in unemployment rate and long glide back to 2% inflation
This sounds very much in line with the consensus and what Powell highlighted. We're all data-watchers now.
