US politics is in focus to start the week and we're now seeing markets gearing towards a Trump victory. He was already odds on to beat Biden if the latter is to stick it through to head into battle in November. But after the failed assassination attempt over the weekend, Trump's odds have soared much higher.
It might be a kneejerk reaction but it is one that at least provides the market with more certainty on the election outcome.
Back in the day, the assassination attempt on Ronald Reagan saw his odds go up by 22 points in the poll.
So, this is markets also responding to that. The dollar is slightly higher alongside yields, though nothing too outstanding. The greenback had been weaker in the week before.
But for Treasury yields, it is a timely bounce as seen above as 10-year yields hold from dropping below the June lows for now.
