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The Fed will release new forecasts today. Here was what they expected back in March

2024-12-30FOREXLIVEFOREXLIVE
What the March forecasts showed
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Federal Reserve building
  • Dot plot leaned narrowly towards three rate cuts (two expected today)
  • Median at 3.1% for end-2025
  • 2024 GDP growth median +1.2%
  • 2025 GDP +1.9%
  • Unemployment rate 4.6% in 2024 and 2025 (currently at 4.0%)
  • 2024 PCE inflation 2.5%
  • 2025 PCE inflation 2.1%
  • 2024 core PCE 2.6%
  • 2025 core PCE 2.1%

I don't see big changes here but I'd expect upside risks to 2024 GDP and downside risks to 2024 unemployment. I could see inflation this year ticking up but the 2025 numbers should stay low.

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