New Zealand Performance of Services Index for May 2024, via BusiznessNZ. BusinessNZ headline their report with the dour: "Bottom of the Barrel"
- lowest for a non-COVID lockdown month since the survey began in 2007
BusinessNZ chief executive Kirk Hope:
- as bad as it can get for the sector, reaching contraction levels greater than during the Global Financial Crisis of 2008/09
- May result well below the long-term average of 53.3
BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel:
- “the speed of decline is as worrisome as its size over the past three months. There is weak and then there is very weak. Overall, this tells of a services sector in reverse, at pace”.
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The bad news for that BusinessNZ "as bad as it can get" comment is that's not necessarily true. They are probably correct, but still ... persistent high rates in New Zealand are a heavy weight on the economy. A possible rate cut is perhaps near the end of the year or early 2025.
