In the European session, we get the release of the final services PMIs for the major European countries and the UK. The final readings are rarely market moving because the market focuses more on new information. We will also get the Eurozone PPI but that's a two month old data and remains in negative territory.
The real action should be concentrated in the US session as we get lots of US labour market data. We begin with the Challenger Job Cuts report and then we follow with the ADP, Jobless Claims, ISM Services PMI and we conclude the day with the FOMC Meeting Minutes. Remember that the US markets will close early today as US traders celebrate Independence Day tomorrow.
The Challenger Job Cuts is a low tier indicator and it's not a market moving release. The ADP could see some market reaction but it's generally faded as the market focuses on the NFP report.
12:30 GMT/08:30 ET - US Jobless Claims
The US Jobless Claims continue to be one of the most important releases to follow every week as it’s a timelier indicator on the state of the labour market. Initial Claims keep on hovering around cycle lows, while Continuing Claims have been on a sustained rise recently with the data setting a new cycle high last week. This is something to keep an eye on. This week Initial Claims are expected at 235K vs. 233K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1840K vs. 1839K prior.
14:00 GMT/10:00 ET - US June ISM Services PMI
The US ISM Services PMI is expected at 52.5 vs. 53.8 prior. This survey hasn't been giving any clear signal lately. The S&P Global US PMIs surprised to the upside with the Services measure in particular showing a strong rise. The focus will likely be on the employment sub-index ahead of the NFP report but the data we got until now suggests that the US economy is doing well, and the labour market remains resilient.
The FOMC Meeting Minutes are rarely a market moving event as it's three weeks old data and they become stale by the time they get released. One thing I expect is that they will be more dovish compared to the actual June's FOMC decision. So, there's that.
Central bank speakers:
- 08:00 GMT - ECB's de Guindos (neutral - voter)
- 09:00 GMT - ECB's Cipollone (dove - voter)
- 10:30 GMT - ECB's Lane
- 11:00 GMT/07:00 ET - Fed's Williams
- 11:30 GMT/07:30 ET - SNB's Martin
- 13:30 GMT/09:30 ET - ECB's Knot
- 14:15 GMT/10:15 ET - ECB's Lagarde (neutral - v
