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Morgan Stanley's Wilson says a 10% fall in S&P 500 by US election is 'highly likely'

2024-12-30FOREXLIVEFOREXLIVE
Flags an increased likelihood of disappointing earnings results

Wilson spoke in an interview with Bloomberg TV, citing uncertainty over when the FOMC will cut rates, firms facing diminished pricing power, resulting an increased likelihood of disappointing earnings results.

  • "The average company has not had good earnings results,"
  • the big gain in the S&P 500 YTD 2024 has been powered by a small number of companies
  • price to earnings multiples have been rising, "Valuations to me look very unexciting"

Wilson has recently lifted his base-case 12-month forecast for the S&P500 in a year, to 5,400 points, from his previous forecast of 4,500.

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As an aside, UBS is looking for a good earnings season:

  • US stocks - Q2 earnings seasonn about to kick off - UBS looking for solidly higher
Morgan Stanley

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