With the UK GDP out of the way, the European session is empty on the data front and will largely be a placeholder as the market awaits the release of the US CPI and the US Jobless Claims figures in the American session.
12:30 GMT/08:30 ET - US June CPI
The US CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.1% vs. 3.3% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.1% vs. 0.0% prior. The Core CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.4% vs. 3.4% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.2% vs. 0.2% prior.
I think the Fed will be more dovish at the next meeting if we get a good report. Then, if we get some more benign figures in August, Fed Chair Powell will likely pre-commit to a rate cut in September at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
12:30 GMT/08:30 ET - US Jobless Claims
The US Jobless Claims continue to be one of the most important releases to follow every week as it’s a timelier indicator on the state of the labour market.
Initial Claims remain pretty much stable around cycle lows and inside the 200K-260K range created since 2022. Continuing Claims, on the other hand, have been on a sustained rise recently with the data printing new cycle highs every week.
This shows that layoffs are not accelerating and remain at low levels while hiring is more subdued. This is something to keep an eye on. This week Initial Claims are expected at 236K vs. 238K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1860K vs. 1858K prior.
Central bank speakers:
- 15:30 GMT/11:30 ET - Fed's Bostic (slight hawk - voter)
- 17:00 GMT/13:00 ET - Fed's Musalem (hawk - non voter)
