Happy Monday and certainly a happier one than it could have been.
The Fed chair spoke twice last week so it's difficult to imagine he will change his tune but he did get the CPI since his second day of testimony so there is a chance he tilts more dovishly. He speaks at 12:30 pm ET in a conversation at the Economic Club of Washington. Given the format, I wouldn't expect pre-released text but I also wouldn't rule out some kind of opening statement.
In terms of data, we get the Empire Fed at the bottom of the hour to kick off the monthly manufacturing cycle. With it comes the Canadian wholesale trade report.
Canada will also be in focus at 10:30 am ET with the Q2 business outlook survey from the Bank of Canada. The market is pricing in a 72% chance of a BOC cut on July 24 but that might shift based on the survey, which is a key BOC input.
