EURUSD
Fundamental Perspective
This week, the EURUSD pair remained within familiar levels, influenced by a lack of significant macroeconomic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials. American policymakers continued to temper expectations for interest rate cuts, fostering a risk-averse market environment. Concurrently, European Central Bank representatives reiterated their intention to reduce interest rates in June, though a July cut is not guaranteed.
Germany's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, while the Eurozone's HICP increased to 2.6%. In the US, the April Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index showed a 0.3% monthly rise, with annual inflation steady at 2.7%.
As the June ECB meeting approaches, markets anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut, which could initially push the Euro down by about 100 pips against the US Dollar. The focus will then shift to ECB President Christine Lagarde's statements and the Governing Council's outlook for the future. Meanwhile, a busy US economic calendar will provide further direction, culminating in the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report. Key releases include the April JOLTS Jobs Openings report, the May ADP survey on private job creation, Challenger Job Cuts, and weekly unemployment figures. These data points will shape market expectations ahead of the Fed meeting on June 12.
EURUSD Forecast Technical Perspective
In the weekly chart, the last candle finished as a doji, reflecting indecision after rallying from the yearly low by posting several consecutive positive weeks. The next candle might be another green one, as candlestick patterns still support a trend continuation.
The daily chart's price remains above the EMA 21 line, indicating positive pressure toward the nearest resistance of 1.0894, followed by the next resistance of 1.0981.
Meanwhile, any price drop below the EMA 21 line can trigger the price to decline at the primary support of 1.0788 before reaching the 1.0674 support line.
