EURUSD
Fundamental Perspective
The EURUSD pair ended the week slightly above the 1.0900 mark, reflecting a volatile period dominated by investor panic and geopolitical tensions. Early in the week, concerns over a potential US recession were heightened by lackluster economic data, while fears of escalating conflict in the Middle East following an Israeli attack on Iranian territory further unsettled markets. This turmoil led to a sharp drop in the US Dollar, pushing the EURUSD pair to 1.1008, its highest level since January.
Contributing to the uncertainty, the Japanese Yen surged after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly raised interest rates by 15 basis points. Simultaneously, speculation grew that the Federal Reserve might cut rates before its September meeting, especially as other major central banks, including the ECB, BoE, and BoC, had already begun easing monetary policy.
As the week progressed, some calm returned to the markets. US stocks rebounded, and the Dollar regained most of its losses. However, uncertainty persists, with the focus remaining on upcoming economic data and central bank actions, which could quickly unsettle the fragile stability.
Economic data, including the US ISM Services PMI and Jobless Claims, supported the improved sentiment, while key reports from both sides of the Atlantic are awaited.
Technical Perspective
The last weekly candle finished with a small red body and wicks on both sides. In contrast, the extended upper wick confirms significant buy pressure on the asset price, leaving buyers optimistic for the upcoming week.
The daily chart's price remains above the EMA 20 line, confirming the recent bullish pressure on the asset price. In contrast, the RSI indicator reading remains neutral above the midline on the indicator window. While the price reaches above the previous resistance of 1.0910 and floats above the EMA 20 line, it can hit the current high of 1.1005, and a breakout may guide the price to the next resistance near 1.1104.
However, on the negative side, if the price reaches below the EMA 20 line and the RSI signal line slopes downward, the price may reach the primary support near 1.0785, followed by the next support near 1.0680.
