XAUUSD
Prediction: Decrease
Fundamental Analysis:
The number of job openings in the US fell to the lowest level in over 3 years in April. This is consistent with a gradual slowdown in the labor market. This has increased speculation that the Federal Reserve will be able to cut interest rates this year. XAU/USD fell back after returning above $2,330. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) results, showing that job openings in April decreased to 8.059 million, down from 8.36 million the previous month. This was lower than all expectations.
Technical Analysis:
The current price of XAU/USD has fallen below the 50-day SMA of $2334. This price drop and the momentum favoring sellers might lead to a further decline. The 14-RSI has turned bearish, dropping below the 50 midline, which suggests that XAU/USD could fall even more. If the price goes below $2334, it might challenge the low of $2303 per from May 8th, and then the low of $2277 from May 3rd. However, if buyers push the price back up to $2350, the price of gold could rise further. The next target would be $2400.
EURUSD
Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD dropped from around the $1.0900 level on Tuesday in the US trading session. This major currency pair is facing downward pressure as the US dollar (USD) bounces back. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US dollar against 6 major currencies, recovered sharply. This happened even though the US manufacturing PMI for May came in weaker than expected. The weak US economic data increased fears of a slowdown in growth and eased concerns about persistent inflation.
Technical Analysis:
If buyers stay in control, the EUR/USD exchange rate might reach the June high of $1.0916 on June 4th, then the March high of $1.0981, and the weekly high of $1.0998 on January 11th. On the other hand, if sellers take over, the rate might drop below the weekly low of $1.0788 on May 30th, which is supported by the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). If it falls below this level, the rate might go down to the May low of $1.0649. The 14-RSI has increased to about 56.
USDJPY
Prediction: Decrease
Fundamental Analysis:
The USD/JPY fell to around $155.00 on Tuesday. This was because the investors were avoiding risky assets, which supported the Japanese yen. Moreover, there were rumors that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might reduce its bond purchases. If the BoJ reduces bond purchases, it would put upward pressure on Japanese bond yields. This is closely linked to the value of the yen. Meanwhile, the US dollar (USD) went up after a big drop the previous day. This was when the US manufacturing PMI for May came in lower than expected.
Technical Analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, USD/JPY finished a correction wave and reached $157.70. Now, a new downward wave is forming, aiming for $153.77. After reaching this target, the price might go up a bit to $155.44 before falling further to $149.70. The 14-period RSI is around 38, showing that the market still has room to become oversold, so there is a downside trend in the medium term.
BTCUSD
Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
The European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate cut could lead to increased inflows into Bitcoin this week. It is anticipated that the ECB will lower interest rates by 0.25% to 4.25% on June 6th. This rate cut may boost investor interest in risky assets like Bitcoin. The ECB is expected to cut rates next week in order to stimulate economic growth. Lower interest rates typically weaken the EUR and increase liquidity, which can benefit risky assets including Bitcoin.
Technical Analysis:
If Bitcoin breaks above $70k and stays there, it will likely reach $72k quickly. This would make the all-time high of $73,778 possible to reach. With many global BTC ETFs buying more Bitcoin than what is being produced after the halving, the medium-to-long-term outlook for Bitcoin looks good. In the short term, Bitcoin is currently testing the May high of $71.9k. If it doesn't go above this $71.9 level, the price of Bitcoin might fall below the important $70k level.
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