XAUUSD
Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
The XAU/USD is going up on Friday to $2400 above. This rise in gold prices started earlier because US inflation in April was lower than expected, making people think the US Federal Reserve might cut interest rates. However, on Thursday, Fed officials said they plan to keep interest rates high for a while, indicating they are not planning to cut rates soon. Also, the president of Iran might have died in a helicopter crash in the mountains, which could increase political instability in the Middle East.
Technical Analysis:
The 4-hour chart shows that gold has been going up steadily since May 2. Gold is still looking strong because its price is above the 100-period EMA. The top limit of this upward trend and the important price level of $2,432 are acting as a major resistance for gold. Gold has now risen above the 100-hour moving average. This means the price might soon reach the overbought level on the 14-hour RSI. Buyers aim for long-term profits around $2497 or even higher at $2592. On the other hand, sellers will look to take profits if the price drops to $2321 or lower to $2226.
USDJPY
Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
People still think the Fed might start lowering interest rates in September. The chance of this happening is now 68%, down from 73% after the low inflation data came out. In Japan, weak GDP data for the first quarter has created new problems for the Bank of Japan's plans to tighten monetary policy. The Japanese economy decreases by 0.5%, which is worse than the expected 0.4% drop.
Technical Analysis:
The 14-RSI favors buyers as it is above 50 and not yet overbought. This means the price is more likely to go up. The first resistance level is at $156.05. If it goes above this, the next target is $157.00. If the USD/JPY falls, it might test lower support levels at $155.18 and then the low from May 16, which is $153.60.
EURUSD
Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD started this week with a positive outlook, closing at $1.08670, close to recent highs. Although there is hope that the U.S. Federal Reserve might consider cutting interest rates, it is unlikely they will do this in June. If Fed officials remain cautious, the USD could stay strong, making it hard for EUR/USD to keep rising through the week.
Technical Analysis:
Watch the support levels between $1.08500 and $1.08400. If these levels stay strong, there could be chances to buy. At the start of this week, keep an eye on the range from $1.08400 to $1.08800. If financial markets stay calm and U.S. Treasury yields keep falling, the USD might stay weak, allowing the EUR/USD to go higher.
BTCUSD
Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
Bitcoin's price has stayed a little above the key support level of $65,000, and cryptocurrency traders think it still looks strong. Some even say there won't be a big drop soon and that the price might keep going up. In the past 30 days, Bitcoin has increased by almost 9%. The continued rise in the cryptocurrency market matches the renewed investment in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. As of May 16, these funds manage about $12.4 billion worth of Bitcoin, up from $11.18 billion at the beginning of the month.
Technical Analysis:
For BTC/USD, as long as the price stays well above $66,000, buyers aim for $67,736.45. If the price breaks this resistance, it could rise further to $68,077.79. If it goes even higher, the next target is $71,567.03. On the other hand, sellers are looking at $66,553.46 as their target. The next support level below that is $65,623.30.
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