XAUUSD
Prediction: Bearish
Fundamental Analysis:
Tuesday's data showed that US labor costs increased more than expected in Q1, confirming concerns about rising inflation and possibly delaying a rate reduction until later this year. Most traders now expect only one rate cut this year, compared to the three previously anticipated.
But the Fed put a red flag on recent disappointing inflation readings and suggested a possible stall in the movement toward more balance in the economy.
The central bank also announced plans to slow the speed of its balance sheet drawdown, after having spent much of the earlier part of the year warning of such a shift.
Fed remarks are less hawkish than expected.
Technical Analysis:
For 4-hours chart, the price of gold dropped significantly. A bearish flag pattern indicates a sharp consolidation after a rapid adjustment, usually following the current trend. The short-term outlook is bearish as the price of gold trades below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,312.
Regarding downward movement, the high point of $2,223 on March 23 will serve as a major support for the price of gold. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) is oscillating in the bearish zone between 20.00 and 40.00, indicating a bearish momentum.
USDJPY
Prediction: Bearish
Fundamental Analysis:
The Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will draw investor interest early in the session. Japanese consumer confidence figures for April also need investor consideration.
Later in the Thursday session, investors will focus on the US labor market, paying attention to unit labor costs, nonfarm productivity, and jobless claims.
Technical Analysis:
The next upward movement, combined with positive signals on hourly charts, shows that it's easier for the USD/JPY pair to go up. However, those betting on the price going up might want to wait until it passes the $158.00 mark. The current prices could go beyond a middle barrier around the $158.40-$158.45 range and try to reach the $159.00 mark again.
EURUSD
Prediction: Bearish
Fundamental Analysis:
US economic data continues to show that inflation is accelerating, and the market today will focus on comments from Fed officials and the monetary policy statement
The euro failed to keep its gains despite strong economic data from the eurozone released on Tuesday. The eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers grew by 0.3% in Q1, exceeding expectations. Additionally, the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) showed steady year-over-year growth, while the core HICP, excluding food and energy prices, softened but still surpassed forecasts.
The ongoing wage pressures in the US economy can amplify inflation concerns. Furthermore, hawkish remarks from Fed officials, indicating no need for immediate rate cuts, have put downward pressure on EUR/USD.
Technical Analysis:
EUR/USD is currently below today's pivot point of $1.0683, indicating a short-term bearish sentiment in the market. Direct resistance levels will be at $1.0735, with additional barriers at $1.0766 and $1.0793, which may limit upward movement. On the other hand, support levels are at $1.0631, $1.0603, and $1.0575. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are at $1.0694 and $1.0746 respectively, indicating that the EUR/USD is moving through a critical range. Breaking the pivot point of $1.0683 might tilt the balance towards a bullish outlook.
BTCUSD
Prediction: Bearish
Fundamental Analysis:
BTC, ETH nurse losses after weak demand for Hong Kong ETFs. The six ETFs registered a first-day trading volume of just $11 million. The six ETFs that commenced trading in Hong Kong on Tuesday fell far short of expectations, with a combined trading volume of just $11 million, a fraction of the expected $100 million.
CSOP Bitcoin Futures ETF
CSOP Ether Futures ETF
Samsung Bitcoin Futures Active ETF
According to Bloomberg analyst Wang, China prohibits citizens from any crypto-related activity, meaning that crypto ETF investments are also banned.
- Binance had its own issues: Zhao has pleaded guilty to anti-money laundering charges, and was sentenced to 4 months in prison.
Technical Analysis:
Looking at Bitcoin's 4-hour chart shows the larger downward trend. Even though there are some small increases, the big drops show that people keep selling. Trying to go up past $65,286 has been stopped by resistance, which shows how strong the current downward trend is. The support at $56,500 is really important. A break below this could offer new entries for bearish positions, whereas a sustained bounce could provide a narrow window for short-term bullish plays.
Disclaimer
Derivative investments involve significant risks and may result in the loss of the capital you invest. You are advised to carefully read and study the legality of the company, products, and trading rules before deciding to invest your money. Be responsible and accountable in your trading.
RISK WARNING IN TRADING
Transactions via margin involves products that use leverage mechanisms, carry high risks, and are certainly not suitable for all investors. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE OF PROFIT on your investment, so be wary of those who guarantee profits in trading. You are advised not to use funds if you are not prepared to incur losses. Before deciding to trade, ensure that you understand the risks involved and also consider your experience.
