The Australian Dollar (AUD) continued its upward trend on Monday, reaching a three-week high of 0.6560. This surge is attributed to growing optimism regarding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)'s stance, particularly after last week's CPI inflation data exceeded expectations.
Warren Hogan, chief economic adviser at Judo Bank, predicts that the RBA might raise the cash rate three times in 2024, potentially reaching 5.1%, with the first hike likely in August. Investors are keenly awaiting the release of March Retail Sales data on Tuesday, which offers insights into consumer spending habits crucial for inflation and GDP trends.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has retraced recent gains, signaling a possible shift towards a more risk-tolerant market sentiment. However, analysts anticipate that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its current interest rate range of 5.25%–5.5% in the upcoming announcement on Wednesday, given concerns about high inflation levels. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates an 87.7% likelihood of unchanged interest rates in the June meeting.
Friday's release of the annual US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for March showed an increase, reinforcing speculation that the Fed might postpone any potential rate cuts until September.
From a technical standpoint, the AUD/USD pair remains within a symmetrical triangle formation, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating a bullish outlook by staying above the 50-level. Potential upward targets include the psychological level of 0.6600 and the upper boundary of the triangle at 0.6639. Immediate support is expected at 0.6500, with further downside potential towards 0.6443 and April’s low of 0.6362 if breached.
AUD/USD: Daily Chart
Australian Dollar price today
The Australian Dollar's (AUD) percentage move against the main currencies listed today is displayed in the table below. When compared to the US dollar, the Australian dollar was the strongest.
| USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
| USD | -0.21% | -0.25% | -0.15% | -0.63% | -1.33% | -0.55% | -0.32% | |
| EUR | 0.21% | -0.05% | 0.05% | -0.42% | -1.11% | -0.34% | -0.11% | |
| GBP | 0.26% | 0.05% | 0.11% | -0.38% | -0.94% | -0.29% | -0.06% | |
| CAD | 0.15% | -0.06% | -0.11% | -0.48% | -1.05% | -0.41% | -0.18% | |
| AUD | 0.63% | 0.42% | 0.36% | 0.48% | -0.68% | 0.08% | 0.31% | |
| JPY | 1.26% | 1.02% | 0.98% | 1.11% | 0.61% | 0.68% | 0.93% | |
| NZD | 0.56% | 0.35% | 0.29% | 0.40% | -0.07% | -0.76% | 0.24% | |
| CHF | 0.38% | 0.15% | 0.09% | 0.21% | -0.26% | -0.95% | -0.18% |
Paraphrasing text from "FX Street" all rights reserved by the original author.
