XAUUSD
Prediction: Decrease
Fundamental Analysis:
US CPI for the month of May cooled, sending the dollar sharply lower ahead of the FOMC statement and updated forecasts due for release at 19:00 (UK). For the real-time coverage, read our US CPI report from senior strategist Nicholas Cawley. On the face of it, it was a good report, seeing headline measures of core and headline inflation come in below expectations on a yearly and monthly basis. Fed officials look to services inflation and super core inflation (services excluding housing and energy) as key gauges of inflation momentum. More recently, officials have been interested to see monthly core cpi breaking the trend of successive 0.4% prints which has now materialized after April's 0.3% and now May's 0.2% .
Technical Analysis:
Gold prices are moving into a bear trend with 50 MA crossing below 200 MA and RSI going below the 50 mark. We look for a key level of 2275 area. If prices goes below the 2275, we can expect the price to continue to fall and reach previous resistance of 2200 and 2000. Looking at fibonacci retracement, we see 2325 is a great entry point to the downside.
SPY
Prediction: Decrease
Fundamental Analysis:
In the lead up to the inflation print, it is fair to say US equity markets were tentative, consolidating around the recent high. Now, with inflation heading in the right direction again, markets have put a second rate cut back on the table – providing stocks with new vigor.
The Fed is due to update their dot plot projection of the likely Fed funds rate for 2024. In March, officials projected three quarter-point rate cuts but May’s inflation data could see that revised to just two or in an extreme case, one. Nevertheless, the prospect of lower future rates has stocks trading higher with 5,500 the next level of interest to the upside.
Technical Analysis:
We see the S&P 500 has recently broke through 2.618 and it looking to reach to another fibonacci extension level of 596.76. Therefore we can look for an entry around the support area of 535 and look for a long position to 600.
USDJPY
Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
Yen depreciation and undesirable volatility has plagued Japanese officials for some time now but the latest US CPI data provided some breathing room. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is due to meet in the early hours of Friday morning where there is likely to be more focus on easing up on aggressive bond buying, allowing the Japanese Government bond yield to rise freely above 1%. This can be viewed as the next step in the Bank’s path to normalisation in a manner that is unlikely to destabilise markets.
Technical Analysis:
USDJPY prices has been on an uptrend and it looks to stay this way based on technical indicators. We expect RSI to reach above 70 as an entry to go short. Based on the fibonacci retracement, once prices reaches above 157.7 to 160 area. We can expect the price to fall.
BTCUSD
Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
Enormous volumes of BTC are being withdrawn from exchanges as the first cryptocurrency is being slowly moved to self-custody. The tendency raises questions, and, usually, the growth of scarcity on exchanges leads to price growth, but that is not the case now.
The liquidation heatmap data shows notable sell-offs that have aided in the decrease in the price of Bitcoin. The graph shows that the $72,000, $69,000 and $66,000 levels saw significant clusters of liquidations. These liquidations show strong selling pressure because the price was forced lower by the forced closure of leveraged positions. The recent price action of Bitcoin shows that this cascading effect from liquidations frequently results in a swift and steep decline.
Technical Analysis:
The bitcoin price has been hovering around 72700 and 56000 for the past 2 months. We can see price action to continue along these price ranges with the entry points on fibonacci retracement levels. If price supports at 0.618 $66500, we can look for an upside profit taking of 69236 or a downside profit takinf of 64600.
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