XAUUSD
Prediction: Decrease
Fundamental Analysis:
Last week, the number of people in the U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims was the highest since the end of 2021. This means it’s taking longer for people to find jobs. The U.S. Department of Labor said that as of June 15, about 1.84 million people were still getting these benefits. At the same time, new claims for unemployment benefits dropped to 233k last week, which included the Fourth of July holiday. The market will focus on the core PCE data tomorrow, which is expected to show a drop in the annual core PCE price index from 2.8% in April to 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021.
Technical Analysis:
The RSI is below the 50 midpoint, indicating that sellers have the upper hand. The next support level for gold is $2300. If it falls below this level, the price may drop to the May 3 low of $2277. On the other hand, if gold rises back to $2350, it will target higher resistance levels like the June 7 high of $2387. If it breaks this resistance, the price will challenge $2400.
EURUSD
Prediction: Decrease
Fundamental Analysis:
EUR/USD saw some buying on Thursday but stayed around the $1.0700 level as traders were confused before Friday’s important US inflation report. However, there was a big drop on Friday morning in Asia, with the pair moving around $1.069. European economic data has been average in the second half of the trading week, so markets are now focusing on the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which will be released today.
Technical Analysis:
On Thursday, EUR/USD found some buyers and bounced from below $1.0680, rising to the 200-hour EMA of $1.0717 before settling around $1.0700. As Friday’s market session, EUR/USD is stuck in a tight range on the daily charts, moving within a downward channel and staying below the 200-day EMA at $1.0785. The support level is at $1.0667, and the resistance is at $1.07. The RSI is below 50, indicating that the market has selling momentum.
USDJPY
Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
USD/JPY trades around $161.00, the highest level since 1986, during the Asian session on Friday. In Tokyo, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose to 2.3% in June, up from 2.2% previously. Core Tokyo CPI inflation, which excludes food prices, also increased to 2.1% from 1.9%, higher than the market's expected 2.0%. The weak inflation data has caused the Yen to lose value, boosting the USD/JPY exchange rate.
Technical Analysis:
The USD/JPY pair is showing signs of overheating. The RSI on the daily chart suggests it's nearing overbought territory. The pair continues to rise towards the important level of $160, where Japanese authorities intervened before. Immediate reactions may not occur, as authorities might wait for US data on Thursday and Friday before considering any actions. If US data strengthens, the pair could test up to $163.00. On the downside, the pivotal support remains at $151.95, which will be crucial to monitor.
BTCUSD
Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
Bitcoin's recovery in price same as the resurgence in inflows to US Bitcoin spot ETFs. As of June 26, these funds managed around $52.61 billion worth of Bitcoin, up from $47 billion in early May. Data shows that after seven consecutive days of outflows, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw positive net inflows over the past two days, with $31 million and $21.3 million recorded on June 25 and 26 respectively.
Technical Analysis:
BTC faced resistance at the lower edge of the descending wedge it broke on Wednesday. Since then, it has dropped by about 1.75%, trading around $60,777. If the $62,000 level continues to hold as resistance, BTC might decrease by around 4% to test its weekly support around $58,375.
Market Analysis Disclaimer:
The market analysis provided by KVB Prime Limited is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Trading forex and other financial markets involves significant risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
KVB Prime Limited does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information provided in the market analysis. The content is subject to change without notice and may not always reflect the most current market developments or conditions.
Clients and readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions and should seek independent financial advice from qualified professionals before making any trading or investment decisions. KVB Prime Limited shall not be liable for any losses, damages, or other liabilities arising from the use of or reliance on the market analysis provided.
By accessing or using the market analysis provided by KVB Prime Limited, clients and readers acknowledge and agree to the terms of this disclaimer.
RISK WARNING IN TRADING
Transactions via margin involve products that use leverage mechanisms, carry high risks, and are certainly not suitable for all investors. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE OF PROFIT on your investment, so be wary of those who guarantee profits in trading. You are advised not to use funds if you are not prepared to incur losses. Before deciding to trade, ensure that you understand the risks involved and also consider your experience.
