Is it Growth Correction in Crypto or Something More?

Ethereum fell back and struggled for support at its 200-day moving average just above $1770. Bulls have room for a decline down to $1740, while a move below would go beyond the regular correction.

Weekly Focus

Markets were not spooked by Halloween as equities climbed significantly higher while rates and the index of fear (the VIX) declined during the week. The market moves were driven by weaker US data, dovish market perceptions of the Fed, and a better outlook for the US treasury as it now expects to slow the pace of longer-term bonds issuance.

Will RBA Confirm Rate Hike Expectations?

The Reserve Bank of Australia is preparing for its 10th rate-setting meeting for 2023. It is shaping up to be the most interesting one in the current round of central bank meetings, as the RBA is widely expected to deliver a 25bps rate hike on Tuesday, raising its main cash rate to 4.35%.

Week Ahead – RBA Rate Decision and UK Growth on the Radar

Turning to the United Kingdom, the highlight will come on Friday in the form of quarterly GDP numbers. The British economy most likely fell into contraction in the third quarter, something reflected in the monthly GDP readings that have already been released and gloomy business surveys.

Canadian Imports Softening on Lower Consumer and Business Spending

The week ahead will be a lighter one for data releases after signs of decelerating Canadian GDP growth, a higher unemployment rate in both the U.S. and Canada , and the U.S. Federal Reserve foregoing an interest rate hike for a second consecutive meeting in the week past.

Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Q4 Appears Off to a Slower Start

This week delivered an onslaught of economic indicators that provided a first glimpse of economic activity during Q4. In short, the remarkable strength on display during Q3 looks to be fading as the year begins to wind to a close. The labor market was front and center. After September's surprising surge, nonfarm payrolls advanced at a more moderate pace in October, rising by 150,000 net new jobs during the month.

Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Remarkable Resilience

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Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast

Having started the past week on a positive note, EUR/USD approached a significant support/resistance level at the 1.0700 zone on Tuesday, October 24, before reversing and sharply declining. According to several analysts, the correction of the DXY Dollar Index that began on October 3rd, which correspondingly drove EUR/USD northward, has come to an end.

US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Statement This Week's Biggest Wildcard

Amid this complex of central bankers, figures and the intensifying Israeli-Hamas conflict, the US Treasury on Wednesday releases its quarterly refunding statement. It serves as this week’s biggest wildcard. At the previous announcement in August, the Treasury stepped up its issuance for the first time in more than two years (to $103bn refunding). A new step-up is anticipated this time around with additional focus on the means the Treasury wants to use (more bills or more long term funding).

Bitcoin Cools After Rally Signals End of Crypto Winter

Bitcoin is up over 11% in seven days but has mostly traded between $34.8-35.8K since Tuesday, after hitting highs in May last year. Technically, last week was a bullish signal as Bitcoin managed to move further into the 200-week moving average, which looks like a promising comeback after crypto winter.