USD/JPY Steady as BoJ's Ueda Urges Caution

The Japanese yen has been drifting since late last week and is calm on Monday. USD/JPY is trading at 156.85, down 0.09% on the day at the time of writing.

Sunset Market Commentary

Bank of France governor and ECB governing council member Villeroy leveraged low volume trading conditions (UK & US markets are closed) to get maximum market impact with some dovish comments. So far, ECB members generally didn’t pre-commit on the H2 2024 ECB policy rate path after the done deal 25 bps June rate cut.

German Business Climate Worse Than Expected; Euro/Pound Under Pressure

The improvement in Germany’s business climate stalled in May, according to data released by Ifo. The index remained at the same level of 89.3 as a month earlier. The indicator was last higher in May last year, but analysts, on average, were expecting a further increase to confirm the more positive PMI reading released last week.

Euro Area Inflation Unlikely to Change ECB's Outlook

With the market counting down to next week’s ECB meeting, the preliminary inflation report for May will be published this week. The data calendar is rather full and includes unemployment data for the eurozone and the German retail sales, but the focus will be firmly on inflation.

June ECB Rate Cut a Done Deal Except in Case of a Big Shock

A June rate cut is a done deal except in case of a big shock. After that, Villeroy didn’t commit to any specific path for follow-up easing, but contrary to some of his more hawkish colleagues he doesn’t exclude a next step in July. If expectations for inflation returning to 2% next year are confirmed, there is room for the ECB to already reduce restrictive policy this year.

Bitcoin Under Pressure But Beats Expectations

Bitcoin’s hashrate updated a record after the fourth halving. The index reached 676 Eh/s now. The moving average of BTC hashrate over the last 7 days exceeded 650 Eh/s, having reached 659 Eh/s at the beginning of the week. Bitcoin miner capacity increased after the halving, although the opposite was expected.

USD/JPY Shrugs as Japan's Inflation Data a Mix

The Japanese yen continues to drift and showing little movement on Tuesday. USD/JPY is trading at 156.92, up 0.01% on the day at the time of writing.

AUD/USD Rises After Retail Sales Tick Higher

Australian consumers remain frugal and cautious, as retail sales rose just 0.1% m/m April. This was a rebound from the 0.4% decline in March and beat the market estimate of 0.2%. On a yearly basis, retail sales rose 1.3%, compared to 0.9% in March.

Sunset Market Commentary

Low volatility in bonds and equity markets is keeping the dollar in the defensive. EUR/USD came close to the 1.0895 ST top, but a real test/break didn’t occur (currently 1.0875). DXY eases to 104.4 (from 104.57).

Australia: April Monthly CPI Indicator First Impressions

The Monthly CPI Indicator gained 3.6% in the year to April compared to 3.5%yr in March and 3.4%yr in both February and January.