EUR/USD Analysis: Key Support Zone Resists Selling Pressure

The euro immediately reacted to the disappointing news. The exchange rate against the dollar fell to its lowest level in six months. However, then an encouraging recovery followed — apparently, the proximity of the rate to the key support zone had an effect.

Ethereum and Bitcoin Ready to Dive

The bitcoin price has returned to $26.6, erasing the mini pump at the beginning of the week. The ability to hold on to last week’s support looks like a positive signal. On the other hand, we saw earlier this week that bears control the market. But they aren’t in a hurry yet.

Canadian Dollar Edges Higher as Retail Sales Rebound

Canada’s retail sales rebounded in impressive fashion on Friday. Retail sales in July jumped 2% y/y, following a -0.6% reading in June and beating the 0.5% consensus estimate. On a monthly basis, retail sales rose 0.3%, up from 0.1% in June but shy of the consensus estimate of 0.4%. The good news was tempered by the August estimate, which stands at -0.3% m/m and would be the first decline since March. The Canadian dollar showed little reaction to the retail sales release.

Week Ahead – US Core PCE and Eurozone Flash CPIs Eyed After Rate Pause Signals

The latest spike in oil prices is causing some headaches for policymakers as energy costs are on the rise again just as they’ve started to see the result of their hard-fought battle to get inflation down. In the United States, higher gasoline prices have already started to push headline inflation back up. But as long as the oil surge turns out to be temporary, the trend in underlying price metrics should remain downwards.

Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Higher for Longer

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25%-5.50% this week. While rates were left unchanged, the Committee retained a hawkish bias. The median projection for the midpoint of the target range at the end of 2024 rose to 5.125%, up from 4.625% in June.

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecasts

EUR/USD: Verbal Interventions by the Federal Reserve Support the Dollar In previous reviews, we extensively discussed the verbal interventions made by Japanese officials who aim to bolster the yen through their public statements. This time, similar actions have been taken by FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) officials, led by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, […]

Modest Movements in Global Market Monday Morning

We have seen modest moves in the global bond and equity markets this morning. US Treasury yields rose very modestly from the long end of the curve. There have also been modest declines in the Asian equity markets this morning where the Chinese equity market is under pressure given the uncertainty surrounding the Chinese property market.

Sunset Market Commentary

New week, same trends. Starting with the core bond sell-off and underperformance of the (very) long end of the curve. Daily yield changes are similar for German Bunds, US Treasuries and UK Gilts: near flat at the front end (2-yr) and up to 10 bps higher at 30-yr tenors. It needs no explanation that we arrive at new cycle tops for example at the US 10-yr yield (4.52%).

EUR/USD: Dollar Rallies Alongside Surging Yields

The euro softened earlier after an uninspiring German business outlook suggests the eurozone’s largest economy still has a rough road ahead.  This was the fifth straight month of declines for Germany’s business confidence. Investors focused on the expectations survey’s slight miss. The IFO economists believe that a third quarter contraction is likely.  As long as the ECB is done raising rates, the outlook should gradually improve for Germany. 

Has German Business Climate Bottomed Out?

Germany’s Ifo business climate index held steady in September at the previous month’s level despite expectations of further deterioration.