Strong Euro Area Wage Growth Adds Pressure on ECB

Wage pressures: ECB's favourite wage measure, euro area compensation per employee, increased 5.2% year-on-year in Q1. With the current momentum in mind, that is strong wage growth, not least considering that the March ECB staff projections had 5.3% wage growth for the year as a whole. This adds further pressure on the ECB.

Soft Chinese Inflation Boosts Dovish PBoC Bets

In China, the consumer prices rose slightly from the 26-month low of 0.1% to 0.2% YEAR-ON-YEAR! Producer prices fell 4.6% in May due to weakening demand and falling commodity prices. It was the 8th straight month of producer price deflation, worse than 4.3% expected analyst, much worse than 3.6% drop printed a month earlier.

Chinese Markets Unmoved By This Morning's Price Data

China May price data published this morning suggested little stress on the country’s demand/supply balance, evidence of a rather sluggish economic recovery and reviving calls for monetary stimulus. CPI inflation rose marginally to 0.2% Y/Y from 0.1% in May.

Bitcoin's Continued Struggle for the Long-term Trend; Ethereum More Optimistic

Bitcoin is trading near $26.5K – in the middle of the previous day’s trading range and just above the psychologically important 200-week moving average. A break below this level could trigger a deeper decline to $24.5K (previous high) or even $22.2K (50-week moving average).

Sunset Market Commentary

US core bond yields recovered from what we consider an outsized market reaction to yesterday’s disappointing US weekly jobless claims. In a technical trading session stripped of any important data, US yields rise between 1.9 and 4.9 bps with the front underperforming, the Canadian payrolls (see below) only temporarily interrupting the move higher.

After EA Inflation, Focus Turns to the US Labour Market Report

Today, the traditional US Jobs Report will round of an eventful week of macro data. Consensus is looking for moderating non-farm payrolls growth (190k; from 253k), but we see some upside risks after most leading employment indicators and yesterday's ADP report have surprised to the upside.

US Won't Default, and Fed Will Likely Skip

And beyond the Fed’s June meeting? Well, we will see. The Fed clearly sends a message that they no longer see urgency in hiking the rates, while also letting investors know that their job fighting inflation is not done just yet. That’s a way of managing market expectations: pausing rate hikes, without however letting the market conditions loosen due to excess dovish speculation.

US: Strong May Payrolls Print Keeps Summer Rate Hike in Play

Another strong reading on U.S. job creation! Over the last three months, job growth has averaged 283k jobs per-month. This marks an uptick from the steady downward trend seen over the last several months. At its current pace, job growth continues to run at a clip that's more than three-times what's required to meet trend growth in the labor force.

Sunset Market Commentary

The US jobs report delivered yet another big beat in the headline figure, the 14th in a row. Employment grew a whopping 339k in May with the previous two months revised up by 93k. That brings about a total upward surprise of 237k.

Stronger Earnings Growth Could be Signal BoJ Has Been Waiting For

Another month has started but the discussion about the BoJ still revolves around the same issues. With the largest central banks globally ready to pause their hiking cycle, can the BoJ map a way out of its ultra-loose monetary policy and finally boost the ailing yen?