Bitcoin and Ether Flirt with 50-day MA

The cryptocurrency market capitalisation is marginally lower by 0.1% compared to 24 hours ago, recovering from a 2% drop at the end of the previous day. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index dropped 3 points overnight to 61 but remained at the Geed territory. Most of the top ten cryptocurrencies are losing ground over the last day, while Bitcoin and XRP are slightly gaining.

RBA Lowers Growth and Inflation Forecasts But Seems Nervous – August Board Meeting “is Live”

The RBA highlights the key to the policy debate – the risks to the inflation forecasts from sticky services inflation. The Reserve Bank’s May Statement on Monetary Policy shows that the Bank has lowered its growth and inflation forecasts for 2023 from the February Statement.

USD/CAD Extends Slide ahead of Job Reports

The Canadian dollar continues to rally today and has climbed 120 points since Tuesday. Earlier in the day, USD/CAD touched a low of 1.3490, its lowest level since April 21st.

Canada's Labour Market Surges Again

Once again, the Canadian jobs market surprises to the upside. Over the last seven months, employment has risen 412k, three times the trend pace over the 2010 to 2019 time period. This has been driven by rapid population growth, which has surged by a million people in the last year. The supply of workers has been boosted, enabling firms to put a big dent in the number of job vacancies.

US: Job Growth Surprised to the Upside in April, But Prior Months See Sizeable Downward Revisions 

Job growth accelerated in April, but there were certainly some indications in the report suggesting that the labor market is softening. Revisions to the two prior months were significantly lower, which after smoothing through the monthly noise, the three-month moving average shows the pace of hiring has continued to decelerate. Moreover, the breadth of hiring – while having ticked higher in April – remains well below year ago levels.

Swiss Franc is Losing Ground Due to Low Inflation

The Swiss franc declined, losing about 1% to 0.8920 after a fresh batch of macroeconomic data. The unemployment rate remains at 1.9%, a historic low. But at the same time, inflation is surprising, falling short of forecasts.

Sunset Market Commentary

Subsequent waves of investor uncertainty on the health of smaller/regional US banks this week unsettled the market dynamics, often overshadowing the impact of key economic data releases or even high profile central bank policy decisions, even from the likes of the Fed and the ECB.

RBA Hopes for Stronger Data to Avoid "Policy Mistake" Discussion

With the market still digesting the recent central banks’ announcements, the focus in Australia now shifts to incoming economic data. Next week will give us more information on the consumer sector, with the RBA hoping that these data releases justify its recent surprise rate hike. In the meantime, the aussie would clearly love another push, especially as most of the gains recorded after the May 2 move have evaporated.

Week Ahead – BoE Takes the Central Bank Torch, US CPI Data Also in Focus

Following the FOMC and ECB decisions last week, the central bank torch will now be passed to the BoE, which will deliver its decision on Thursday. A 25bps hike is mostly priced in, so the spotlight will fall on clues and hints on how officials are planning to move forward. The US CPIs will also attract special attention as investors are trying to figure out whether the Fed will pause or hike once more in June.

Week Ahead – US CPI Data Eyed While BoE Seeks to Get Inflation Back Below 10%

US The labor market is showing signs of resilience, but now the focus shifts back to inflation, with a close eye staying on the banking space. The banking system does not look ‘sound and resilient’ as more banks come under stress.  US regulators will eventually be forced to act as the banking crisis worsens and […]