DXY Testing the 100.82 YtD Low

DXY is testing the 100.82 YtD low during the Asian session this morning. A break lower paves the way towards a support zone around 99.4. EUR/USD extends gains to 1.107 with from a technical point of view little in the way for a return to 1.1185. The picture for rates turned a bit more neutral in our view.

Cliff Notes: Constructive Developments for the Consumer

Developments in Australia and the US this week were supportive of our views for the RBA and the FOMC.

Ether Accelerates After the Hard Fork

Ethereum is up more than 10% overnight, trading above $2100. This is its highest level since last May. The successful activation of the Shapella hard fork triggered the rally. The update was activated on the night of the 12th at 22:30 GMT, allowing withdrawal from the stacking. Contrary to fears, this did not pressure the ETH exchange rate but accelerated the upward trend in December.

New Zealand Dollar Drifting after Soft Manufacturing PMI, Markets Brace for Soft US Retail Sales

New Zealand wrapped up the week on a sour note, as Manufacturing PMI for March slipped to 48.1, after a downwardly revised 51.7 in February and below the estimate of 51.0. A reading above 50.0 indicates expansion; below 50.0 indicates contraction. The manufacturing sector has been struggling across the globe due to weak economic conditions and supply chain issues, and the market reaction to the weak release was muted.

Fed Shrinks Balance Sheet Slower than ECB

The Fed’s balance sheet shrank by 17.6 bn last week to 8,615 bn. Down 119bn over three weeks, the balance sheet is still 275bn higher than at the start of March.

USD/JPY Steady, BOJ's Ueda Pledges to Maintain Policy, Markets Eye US Retail Sales

It has been a light data calendar in Japan this week, leaving Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s remarks at a G20 meeting in Washington as the highlight of the week. Ueda took over as head of the central bank on Sunday and will chair his first BoJ policy meeting at the end of the month.

ETHUSD Rose by 10% in a Day on the Background of Shanghai Upgrade

Shanghai, an important upgrade to the Ethereum blockchain, has been a success. Against the backdrop of the news, the ETHUSD rate rose by 10% per day, breaking the psychological level of $2,000. As of Friday morning, ETH is trading above $2,100, something that has not happened since May 2022. Since the beginning of the year, […]

US: Retail Sales Fall Sharply in March, Recording a Second Consecutive Month of Declines

Retail sales fell 1.0% month-on-month (m/m) in March, much weaker than the consensus forecast calling for a more moderate pullback of 0.4% m/m. February's reading was revised up marginally to -0.2% (from -0.4%), making today's print just a tad less unfavorable.

Sunset Market Commentary

Today’s downward surprise from import/export prices and retail sales (-1% m/m in March vs -0.5% m/m expected; control group better than feared though at -0.3% m/m) triggered negligible spike higher before investors decided to square some positions.

Swiss Price Pressure Almost Neutralised

The Swiss Producer and Import Price Index rose by 0.2% in March, slowing the annual growth rate to 2.1% from 2.7%. Producer price pressures are easing faster than expected (2.7% y/y expected). Easing inflation is a long-awaited signal for the SNB, which has raised its rate by 225 percentage points since the middle of last year to 1.5%, the highest since 2008.