Sunset Market Commentary

Markets A sense of calm returned to markets after the extreme risk-off repositioning all day yesterday. The Asian trading session was still marked by wild intraday swings, with short-term US yields at some point up 20 bps before suddenly collapsing 25 bps only to recover again. The 2-y is currently up 36 bps, recouping more […]

US Inflation Sparks Risk Appetite

The US consumer price index rose 0.4% in February, slowing the annual rate to 6.0%, in line with economists’ expectations. The core price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.5% for the month (0.4% expected) and slowed slightly to 5.5% for the year from 5.6%. It is important to note that the monthly price […]

Easing Fears

Market movers today From the US, we get producer prices and retail sales for February. Like the CPI, the PPI is expected to show declining headline inflation but still too high core inflation at the producer level. Consensus is for a small decline in retail sales after the big 1.7% m/m increase in January, but […]

Fed Expectations Back a 25bp Hike in the Wake of CPI Data

Global banks, including the US regional banks, rebounded sharply on Tuesday. As such, the past days’ banking stress has been rapidly contained after the US government put in place the necessary measures to restore confidence. The return of confidence in the banking sector sent the US bond prices lower, and the yields higher. But the […]

We Expect ECB to Stick to Its Guidance of a 50 bps Rate Hike Tomorrow

Markets Volatility on especially rate markets remained high yesterday. Markets in the end erased part of the fallout of the SVB and Signature Bank collapse & government deposit bailout. The jury is still out on whether these two regional bank failures are “isolated” events or whether larger systemic risks to financial stability loom. It puts […]

Australian Dollar Slips Ahead of Employment Report

The Australian dollar, which has posted strong gains early in the week, has run into a wall on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6638, down 0.66%. Australian job growth expected to rebound Australia releases the February employment report on Thursday (Australia time). Job growth is expected to rebound, with a consensus […]

Key Moment for the Oil Market

Oil prices fell to a three-month low following the release of US inflation data which was in line with expectations. The annual inflation rate of 6% and monthly rate of 0.4% were unsurprising, but the monthly core Consumer Price Index (CPI) beat expectations at 0.5%. This has led to the market pricing in a 25 […]

US: Retail Sales Soften in February, Meeting Consensus Expectations

Retail sales declined 0.4% month-on-month (m/m) in February, bang on the median consensus forecast. January’s reading was revised up to 3.2% (from 3.0%), balancing out today’s loss. Trade in the auto sector was weak, with sales at motor vehicle dealers declining by 1.8%, but from an upwardly revised reading of 7.1% in January (v. 5.9% […]

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets News this morning of a major Credit Suisse shareholder ruling out a capital injection in the ailing Swiss bank not only rekindled a still lingering fire, it fanned it into an roaring blaze. Investors are running towards the exit, concerned about a potential collapse and the repercussions of this systemically important bank on the […]

First Impressions: NZ GDP, December Quarter 2022

New Zealand’s GDP fell by 0.6% in the December quarter, and the economy’s momentum has slowed by even more than the headline figures suggests Quarterly change: -0.6% (last: +1.7%, Westpac f/c: -0.2%, market f/c: -0.2%) Annual change: +2.2% (Last +6.4%) Annual average change: +2.4% (Last: +2.7%) The New Zealand economy’s strong run through the middle […]