May Data to Show Canadian Inflation on Downward Trajectory

We expect Canadian inflation numbers on Tuesday will show further signs of gradual easing in price pressures. Consumer price index growth should edge down to 2.6% year-over-year from 2.7% in April. That would mark the fifth consecutive month that annual price growth is within the Bank of Canada’s 1% to 3% inflation target range.

The Weekly Bottom Line: A Grand Slam of Economic Data

Just as sports enthusiasts reveled in the array of top-tier events like the Euro Cup, Stanley Cup playoffs, and Copa America, economic news aficionados had a wealth of data to absorb this week. The economic arena was further energized by updates from forecasters, including yours truly – TD Economics - releasing our own view on the outlook for national and provincial economic growth.

Bank of England Preview

We expect the Bank of England (BoE) to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 5.25% on 20 June, which is in line with consensus and current market pricing. We expect the vote split to be 7-2, with the majority voting for an unchanged decision and Ramsden and Dhingra voting for a cut. Note, this meeting will not include updated projections or a press conference following the release of the statement.

RBA Preview: Comforts and Confidence

The RBA Board is expected to leave the cash rate unchanged at next week’s meeting. The recent data-flow will provide some comfort that restrictive policy is bringing inflation back under control, but the path is still uncertain. Vigilance remains the order of the day until the RBA becomes more confident of achieving a sustained return to sub-3% inflation.

Week Ahead – RBA, SNB and BoE Next to Secide, CPI and PMI Data Also on Tap

The Reserve Bank of Australia will keep the central bank theme going on Tuesday when it meets for its June policy decision. Like their global peers, RBA policymakers had been hoping that their job was going to get a lot easier this year. But a muddy economic picture and sticky inflation have complicated the policy path.

WTI Oil Week Ahead: WTI Eyes $80 a Barrel on Demand Optimism

WTI oil prices are experiencing a resurgence this week, driven by demand optimism. This positions WTI for its best week in over two months. WTI is up 4.48% at the time of writing, with the $80 a barrel mark now firmly in sight.

Housing and Retail Sales Data to Show Canadians Continue to Hold Back

Economic data in the week ahead should show further softening in Canadian (per-person) household spending before the Bank of Canada pivoted to lower interest rates in June.

Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Inflation Cools as Summer Begins

A bevy of soft inflation data for May fueled optimism that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates at the September FOMC meeting. On Wednesday, the May CPI data showed that consumer prices were unchanged in the month, the first flat reading for the CPI since July 2022. Excluding food and energy, core CPI increased by a "low" 0.2% (0.16% before rounding), the smallest monthly increase since August 2021.

Not So Cheery

Last week was brilliant for the major US indices but gloomy elsewhere. The S&P500 was slightly down on Friday, but the index posted its best weekly advance in a month on the back of a surprise easing in CPI figures and a not-too-hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) statement. Nasdaq, on the other hand, closed last week having renewed record every session. The AI rally was fruitful.

Weekend Digest and a Quiet Start to the Week

It will be a quiet start to the week on the data front. From Sweden, we get the Riksbank's Business Survey. Overnight, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to leave monetary policy unchanged. Markets price in the first rate cut only for May 2025.