Now Inflation Surprises in Europe Can Help the Euro

Inflation in Germany continues its hike far beyond the charts. The deceleration of the monthly price growth rate in May and June proved deceptive, followed by a surge of 5.3% for July and 7.9% for August. The annual rate of producer price growth soared to 45.8% from 37.2% a month earlier, contrasting with the expected […]

Slower Inflation Has Weakened the CAD

Canadian consumer prices fell 0.3% in August, the first decline this year and the strongest since May 2020. The annual rate of price growth fell from 7.6% to 7.0%. The USDCAD pair turned sharply higher a week ago after briefly touching the 50-day moving average and returning to below 1.30. Since then, the pair has […]

Will the SNB Rock the Swissie with a Huge 100 bps Rate Hike?

The Swiss National Bank is expected to step up its fight against inflation when it sets its benchmark interest rate on Thursday at 07:30 GMT. The consensus points to a full percentage point increase and policymakers may have a good reason to listen to investors and boost the already strong swissie. Currency advantage Excluding the […]

All Eyes on Fed

Risk appetite is poor into today’s Federal Reserve (Fed) decision, and after Riksbank shocked the market with a 100bp hike yesterday. That was the most aggressive rate move in Sweden in three decades. The Swedish policymakers said that ‘inflation is too high’, where it’s going is difficult to assess, and further steps will be taken […]

Fed to Hike by 75bp

Market movers today The big focus of the day is the FOMC meeting tonight, where we expect a 75bp hike. Financial markets agree with this view with about 78bp priced in as of yesterday. For more details see our Fed preview Research US – Fed preview: Fast pace hiking cycle continues, 16 September. The strategic […]

Markets Brace for Fed's Next Moves

All eyes are on the Fed’s incoming policy signals due later today, with US interest rates set to be raised to their highest levels since 2008. With a 75bp hike already fully priced in, a dovish, smaller 50bp hike is likely to translate into strong dollar selling while offering some immediate relief for risk assets. […]

The Crypto Market Has Laid Low

Market picture Bitcoin fell 2% to $19K in the past 24 hours as the US dollar rose and stock indices resumed their decline. Despite unfavourable market sentiment ahead of Wednesday’s Fed rate decision, BTC managed to hold off from updating the previous day’s low. Ethereum lost 1.7% to $1335, with prices for the top altcoins […]

Australian Dollar Extends Losses

The Australian dollar has edged lower today. Earlier, AUD/USD dropped to 0.6654, its lowest level since May 2020. Risk sentiment has soured after Russia announced that it is moving quickly to annex territories that it has captured in Ukraine. European leaders quickly denounced the move as a “sham”. An annexation would seriously escalate the conflict […]

Japanese Yen Steady ahead of Fed, BoJ

USD/JPY continues to show limited movement this week. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 144.10, up 0.27%. BoJ unlikely to change policy The Japanese yen has depreciated by over 20% this year, and the yen’s slide will be high on the agenda at the Bank of Japan’s meeting on Thursday. We could […]

Will the Fed Push the Market or Hold it at the Edge?

The markets are preparing for the next Fed decision, the publication of which and subsequent Chairman Powell’s comments have the potential to trigger sharp market moves and set the tone for the days or even weeks ahead. The rate futures market is laying down an 84% chance of a 75-point increase, leaving a 16% chance […]