July US Jobs Report Obliterated Even the Most Optimistic Expectations

Markets Crushed it! The July US jobs report obliterated even the most optimistic expectations. Employment grew by 528k, accelerating from an upwardly revised 398k in June and more than double the 250k consensus. Sectors producing the biggest increases were education & health (+122k), professional business services (+89k) and leisure & hospitality (+96k). After shedding 6k […]

Week Ahead – US Inflation Report to Cast Light on Fed's Path

Another decisive week for global markets lies ahead. The main event will be the latest CPI report from the United States, which will reveal whether inflation has finally started to cool off. That’s what business surveys and commodity prices suggest, setting the stage for a retracement in the almighty dollar.  Recession blues Market participants are […]

Forward Guidance: Soaring U.S. Inflation to Ease Off in July

U.S. inflation numbers are expected to edge lower next week, dropping to 8.8% in July. The slowdown (the reading was at 9.1% in June) comes after inflation hit record levels following more than a year of persistent supply chain pressures, elevated domestic demand and soaring commodity prices. The dip will likely reflect an easing in […]

Week Ahead – Fear Returns ahead of Inflation Data

Can the Fed afford to ease off the brake? The end of last week was a bit of a reality check for investors that were maybe getting a little carried away with the supposed “dovish pivot” from the Fed and turning a blind eye to the data and what central bank policymakers were saying. Perhaps […]

The Weekly Bottom Line: More Fuel to the Recession Debate

U.S. Highlights The U.S. economy added a whopping 528k jobs in July, pushing employment above its pre-pandemic level. The unemployment rate also ticked lower, falling back to its pre-pandemic historical low of 3.5%. Sentiment indicators also surprised to the upside, with the manufacturing sector faring better than expected and the services sector pointing to plenty […]

Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: July Jobs Report Squashes Current Recession Fears

Summary United States: July Jobs Report Squashes Current Recession Fears Employers added over half a million jobs in July, which squashes arguments that the U.S. economy is currently in recession. While other measures of labor market strength have shown more pronounced signs of slowing, the July jobs report puts further pressure on the Fed to […]

Reserve Bank of Australia Sees Flexible Path Forward

Summary The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its Cash Rate by 50 bps to 1.85% at its August meeting and signaled that further rate hikes will be needed to bring inflation back toward target over time. Several elements of the monetary policy announcement were essentially unchanged from previous meetings. However, there were also some […]

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast

EUR/USD: Unexpected Positive News from the US EUR/USD has been moving sideways in the 1.0100-1.0270 channel for almost three weeks. Timid attempts to break through the upper or lower border of the channel have ended in failure each time. Could it be the summer holiday season to blame? Most likely, the reason is the unexpected […]

NZ First Impressions RBNZ Survey of Expectations September quarter 2022

The RBNZ’s latest Survey of Expectations showed that expectations for inflation over the coming years remain elevated. However, the trend higher seen in recent months looks to have been arrested, with expectations easing at some of the key medium-term horizons. That will leave the RBNZ feeling more comfortable that the risks of high inflation becoming […]

Strong Jobs Report Supports the Case for Another 75bp in September

Market movers today A quiet start to the week in terms of data releases. The Euro Area Sentix Index will be released for August and markets are looking for indications that the weakness in July’s leading indicators has persisted into August. In addition, Manufacturing PMI will be released for Norway. Later in the week, the […]