Australian Inflation Lifts as Broadly Expected

June 2022 CPI 1.8%qtr vs 1.7% forecast; Trimmed Mean 1.5% vs 1.4% forecast. The CPI came in broadly as expected even with food, clothing & footwear, household furniture, equipment & services surprising to the high side. The CPI gained 1.8% in the June quarter splitting the difference between the market median of 1.9% and Westpac’s […]

Investors Increasingly Consider a (Sharp) Recession, Especially in Europe, as Unavoidable

Markets The news on Russia scaling back gas supplies through Nord Stream 1 to just 20% remained the dominating trading theme yesterday. Investors increasingly consider a (sharp) recession, especially in Europe, as unavoidable. The dark mood was compounded by yet again downwardly revised IMF growth forecasts (cfr. infra). Stocks in Europe and on WS shed […]

Markets Poised to React to Fresh Fed Guidance

A 75-basis point hike by the Fed today is already well-telegraphed; anything else would be a surprise. Looking beyond today’s FOMC decision, markets are currently expecting another 100bps of hikes before 2022 draws to a close, with the Fed Funds rate reaching a year-end peak of 3.4%. If Chair Powell signals today that policymakers are […]

Daily Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Today’s trading session started calmly for the single European currency. Neither the bears, nor the bulls manage to take advantage. At the time of writing the analysis, the first major support would be at 1.0115. If the bulls manage to gain a preponderance, they will have to deal with the resistance at 1.0168, with […]

Bitcoin Settles at $21K ahead of FOMC

Bitcoin is clinging to the $21,000, having changed little in the past 24 hours, while Ethereum is adding 1.7% overnight to $1450. Prices of the top altcoins range from -0.6% (Cardano) to +4.2% (BNB). The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 0.85% to $978bn overnight. Bitcoin came under increased pressure on […]

What to Expect from FOMC Meeting on July 27th

On Wednesday, 27th of July, at 18:00 GMT, the Fed will release its monetary policy decision, including the interest rate and the QE programme. The news is expected to cause a surge of volatility in the USD and across the markets. Analysts expect the FOMC to raise the rate by 75 basis points to 2.5%. […]

EU Discuss Plans to Cut Gas Consumption by 15%

EUR/USD Price May Fall towards This Level A trust issue with Mr Putin Waiting for Mr Powell’s press conference EUR/USD critical levels to monitor The EU held an emergency meeting yesterday to discuss plans to cut gas consumption by 15%. Leaders are skeptical about Mr Putin’s intentions of returning gas supplies to Europe as he […]

Aussie Shrugs After Inflation Report

The Australian dollar has edged higher on Wednesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6950 in European trade. CPI rises, but less than expected Australia’s inflation rate accelerated in the second quarter, but the market reaction was muted, as the 6.1% gain was a notch below the estimate of 6.2%. Inflation still remains the RBA’s number one […]

Euro Stabilizes after Sharp Slide

The euro has edged higher on Wednesday, after sliding over 1% yesterday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0147, up 0.29% on the day. All eyes on Federal Reserve The markets are eagerly awaiting the FOMC decision later today. The meeting is live, with the Fed expected to raise rates by 75bp […]

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets The (mostly) European inspired recession trade that dominated trading since end last week finally took a breather as the market focus is turning to this evening’s Fed decision. European data at least didn’t provide much comfort. German GFK August consumer sentiment dropped further to a record low (-30.6 from 27.7) as consumers pondered whether […]