Sunset Market Commentary

The chase is sometimes better than the catch. Lemmy knew. Scooter knew. And now we know. Since the start of the week, investors have been chasing down bond yields. In Europe, anticipation on lower inflation numbers offer part of the explanation. ECB Lagarde switching focus from policy rates to halting PEPP reinvestments ahead of the current shelf date (end 2024 at the earliest) strengthened the markets’ early rate cut bias as well.

Deflationary Spiral Still a Recurring Risk in China, But Yuan Remains Resilient

The November NBS Manufacturing PMI for China has remained a contractionary state; it declined to 49.4 from 49.5 in October and below the consensus estimate of 49.7. This observation suggests a weak external demand environment coupled with the ongoing dismantling of global manufacturing supply chains especially in the semiconductor industry due to the rivalry between the US and China in the high-tech Internet of Things space.

Nothing Says 'Let's Save the Planet' Like a Summit Led by a Big Oil CEO

The rally in US bonds continued at full speed yesterday and bonds are set to record their best month since the GFC this November. The US 2-year yield tumbled to almost 4.60% yesterday from nearly 5% at the start of the week. While the 10-year yield rebounded after hitting 4.25%. That makes an almost 40bp fall for the US 2-year yield and a 25bp fall for the US 10-year yield in three days only.

Focus Turns to EA and US Inflation

Today we get the HICP inflation numbers for the euro area. After yesterday's lower-than-expected Spanish and German prints, consensus expects the euro area figure at 2.5% y/y.

Interesting to See Whether EUR/USD Can Regain 1.10 Barrier

US markets might still be more sensitive to weaker data. This especially might be the case for the dollar. Interesting to see whether EUR/USD can regain the 1.10 barrier. USD/JPY also looks vulnerable sub 147.

EUR/USD Drops Ahead of Eurozone CPI

The euro is in negative territory in Thursday trade. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0940, down 0.27%.

BTC/USD Analysis: New High for the Year Shows Bulls Are Indecisive

Meanwhile, the BTC/USD chart shows signs that demand forces are losing confidence, although the price is moving within an ascending channel (shown in blue).

Today OPEC+ May Announce New Oil Production Cuts

In anticipation of news about the OPEC+ decision, the price of oil is rising - this indicates that market participants assess the possibility of new production cuts as quite real, even if we are not talking about 1 million barrels per day. The price is approaching its maximum for November.

Crypto Market: Another Pullback Within the Framework of Growth

The crypto market cap fell 0.5% in 24 hours to $1.42 trillion, showing another pullback as part of a broader uptrend that started in mid-October but has slowed in the last couple of weeks.

EUR/GBP – Down for Sixth Day as Eurozone Inflation Falls Again

Eurozone inflation fell much further than expected in October, leaving the headline HICP rate within touching distance of the ECB’s 2% target.