Price of WTI Oil Forming a Reversal Pattern

In our analysis of the price of WTI oil dated November 8, we wrote that the price could recover to the level of USD 80 per barrel.

Euro Edges Higher as PMIs Show Improvement

German PMIs were released earlier today, presenting a cup-half-full-half-empty picture. Let’s start with the good news. German Manufacturing PMI hit a six-month high and the Services PMI a two-month high and both beat the forecasts. However, both manufacturing and services remain in contraction, as the eurozone’s largest economy continues to sputter.

NZD/USD Rises Ahead of Retail Sales

Retail sales are a key gauge of consumer spending and the New Zealand consumer has been holding tightly to the purse strings. In the second quarter, retail sales fell 1% q/q, with most retail industries showing lower sales volumes. This marked a third consecutive losing quarter. The markets are bracing for another decline for Q3, with a consensus estimate of -0.8%.

British Pound Hits 10-Week high as PMIs Accelerate

The UK released manufacturing and services PMIs earlier today, and both PMIs improved and beat expectations, which has given the British pound a boost.

NZ First Impressions: Retail Trade September Quarter 2023

Retail spending was stronger than we and other analysts expected in the September quarter. However, digging into the details, we’re still seeing signs of softness, and we expect a further slowdown over the coming months.

European Yields Rise on Data and German Debt Break Outlook

FI: European yields rose significantly yesterday following the stronger-than-expected PMI data and the German government plan to suspend the debt brake next year. 10Y Bund yields rose 7bp, while the 2s10s curve bear steepened 4bp throughout the day. Long-term inflation metrics (e.g. the 5y5y EUR inflation swap) spiked in reaction to the strong PMI data.

Volumes Remain Traditionally Low on Black Friday

US investors return from their Thanksgiving holiday, but volumes remain traditionally low on Black Friday. US November PMI’s are the key focus. We hope to a see a similar market reaction as yesterday on EMU PMI to confirm our case that the upward bond correction ran its course.

NZD/USD Edges Higher as Retail Sales Beat Expectations

The New Zealand dollar has posted slight gains on Friday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6059, up 0.17%. The New Zealand dollar is headed to a second-straight winning week and has sparkled in November, with gains of 4% against the US dollar.

Japanese Yen Shrugs as Core CPI Ticks Higher

Japan’s core CPI rose slightly in October to 2.9% y/y, up from 2.8% in September and just below the consensus estimate of 3.0%. The core CPI print excludes fresh food but includes energy. Core CPI has now exceeded the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for 19 consecutive months. Headline inflation jumped to 3.3% y/y, up from 3.0% in September and above the market consensus of 3.2%.

Germany on the Brink of Recession, UK Consumer Confidence Improving

Nowhere is that more evident than in Germany which appears to be on the brink of a double-dip recession and facing immense uncertainty over its budget for next year as it scrambles to patch up finances for this one.