Sunset Market Commentary

Today’s US payrolls had to decide whether markets recently discounted enough tightening. Markets took a ‘mild’, indecisive bias going into the release with Treasuries tentatively in the defensive while major European equities added modest gains. The dollar ceded few ticks. This week’s ADP at least again wasn’t a good pointer.

Week Ahead – US Inflation and Fed Minutes to Test Dollar, Bond Markets

As speculation about whether or not the Fed will hike one more time goes into overdrive, the latest report on the US consumer price index will be the big highlight of the week. With the next FOMC decision less than four weeks away, there is a sense of driving blindfolded for both policymakers and traders amid conflicting data on where the economy is headed.

Will the Drumbeat of Bleak UK Economic Data Continue?

At its latest gathering on September 21, the Bank of England decided to keep rates steady at 5.25%, citing slowing economic activity and a cooling labor market. Although officials accelerated the pace of their quantitative tightening program, the disappointment on interest rates resulted in a selloff in the British pound.

Week Ahead – US Inflation and Earnings, Central Banker Appearances in Abundance

This week will deliver a make-or-break moment for Fed rate hike expectations.  The main event will be the September inflation report.  Expectations are for both headline and core inflation to post 0.3% month-over-month gains in September, while headline year-over-year inflation will drop a tick to 3.6% and core’s annual reading will ease from 4.3% to 4.1%. In September, gas prices were relatively stable, car prices rose, and some core services were sticky.

Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Volatility Hits Global Financial Markets

Global financial markets remained under pressure for most of this week. The selloff in risk assets primarily stems from a still resilient U.S. economy and hawkish leaning Federal Reserve.

USD Momentum for Now Doesn’t Look that Convincing

USD momentum for now doesn’t look that convincing. A break below the 1.045 short‐term low apparently isn’t that easy. Later this week the focus is on the Minutes of the Fed September meeting (Wednesday) and the US CPI release (Thursday; 0.3% M/M expected both for core and headline). Also keep an eye at the US Treasury selling 3‐,10‐ & 30‐y bonds as US yields are holding close to the cycle peak levels.

Bitcoin Joins Other Cryptos in Its Slide

Technically, bitcoin remains in an uptrend but ran into resistance at its 200-day moving average over the weekend. Having lost its ability to rally, bitcoin has returned to the general crypto market, where the major altcoins remained under pressure for most of last week. All eyes will be on BTCUSD to see if it can successfully consolidate above $28,000, the 200-day moving average. If it does, we can expect a quick rise to $29.0K-$29.3K.

Mighty Dollar Turns to US Inflation Data and Fed Minutes

The US economy continues to display impressive resilience. Economic growth accelerated over the summer and is projected to have reached an annualized 4.9% in the third quarter according to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model, as consumers continue to spend and the labor market remains in great shape.

Sunset Market Commentary

The Israel-Hamas conflict dominates headlines today, but the market impact is constraint for now. With Japan and the US closed, traded volumes are low though, suggesting to wait at least tomorrow’s action before drawing firm conclusions. (Slight) risk aversion is the obvious undertone today. Main European stock markets lose 0.5% to 1%.

UK100 – Gives Up Earlier Gains in Risk-Averse Trade

UK100 outperforming buoyed by energy stocks Risk aversion weighing on broader markets Sideways trend remains in tact