We Don't See a Strong Case for Sustained USD Setback

Even as the USD didn’t convince post‐payrolls and given the geopolitical tensions, we don’t see a strong case for a sustained USD setback, with the euro also vulnerable to a shaky global sentiment.

Ethereum Loses Ground

Another attempt by Bitcoin to break above $28K triggered a wave of selling that took the price back to $27.2K at the peak of the decline. Interestingly, the pressure on Bitcoin came when the risk appetite in traditional markets was recovering. We attribute this to Monday’s US defaulted debt markets rather than the moving of money from one asset to another.

Risk Appetite Improves Amid More Balanced Fed Commentary

Equity markets are bouncing back on Tuesday after a risk-averse start to the week, buoyed perhaps by some promising Fed commentary on Monday.

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Pulls Back in September

NFIB's Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.5 points to 90.8 in September, coming broadly in line with market expectations for a moderate decline. September’s reading marks the 21st consecutive month below the historical average of 98.

Sunset Market Commentary

Risk-on? Risk-off? Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East suggest the latter at least should have some role to play. However, with (European) equity indices adding about 1.5%+, investors clearly see other drivers for trading.

Will China's Data Confirm that the Economy is Bottoming Put?

Following a temporary boost just after the removal of COVID-related ultra-restrictive policies, the Chinese economy faced a steep economic slowdown, with the property sector being the biggest drag as major developers are struggling with mountains of debt and missing payments to lenders, which brought an end to a long-running building boom that propelled China’s growth.

Sunset Market Commentary

The market current is strong. Bearish sentiment on core bond markets is still name of the game with the long end of the curves underperforming as real rates push higher. It’s no different today with US yields adding another 0.5 bps (2-yr) to 6.5 bps (30-yr).

Gold – Continues to Struggle Amid Hawkish Central Bank Warnings

Gold is on course to extend its losing run to seven sessions, with the yellow metal down around half a percent following the US JOLTS report.

USD/JPY: JOLTS dollar pop likely triggered Japanese intervention

The FX market was dealt a surprise after Japanese officials likely intervened after a hot JOLTS report sent dollar-yen above the 150 level. The other scenario, albeit unlikely, is that the dollar rally triggered a massive stop.

NZ First Impressions: RBNZ Monetary Policy Review

The RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 5.5% and communicated a relatively dovish statement on the future OCR in the accompanying statement.