Except in Case of Unexpectedly Weak US data, Dollar Again Might Be Better Protected

Except in case of unexpectedly weak US data, the dollar again might be better protected. In EUR/USD the attempt to break above the downtrend channel top since mid-July is rejected. The 1.0766 correction low is first support. Also keep in mind that US markets are closed for Labour Day on Monday.

Canadian Dollar Eyes GDP, US Jobs Data

The Canadian dollar is calm in the European session, trading at 1.3500, down 0.07%. I expect to see stronger movement from USD/CAD in the North American session, as Canada releases second-quarter GDP and the US publishes the July employment report.

Market Wiped out Tuesday's Gains; Down-Trend Asserted in BTC

Bitcoin ended August down 11% at $26K, its worst performance since last November and the second consecutive month of declines. Technically, the recent pullback has confirmed that BTC’s 200-day average is now acting as a resistance. According to the Fibonacci pattern, the potential downside target is the $21.3K area. However, a drop to $24.7K also looks like an impressive short-term target for the bears.

Fed Could Not Have Hoped for a Better Week of US Jobs Data

If you're a Federal Reserve official, you'll find it hard not to be very pleased with the way this week's gone from a labor market data perspective.

US Unemployment Rate Higher in August

Job growth in the U.S. remained firm in August at 187k, following downwardly revised 157k and 105k increases in July and June.

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets barely budged in the run up to today’s widely anticipated payrolls so we’ll jump straight to it. Job growth amounted to 187k in August. The small consensus beat (170k) fades to nothing when taking into account a net 110k downward revision for the past two months. The unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped 0.3 ppts to 3.8% but a jump in the participation rate from 62.6% to 62.8% as more Americans explore the labour market helps explain the uptick.

Week Ahead – RBA rate decision, Fed speak and BoE monetary policy hearing

The all-important RBA monetary policy decision will be released on Tuesday. A third consecutive month of no change in the policy cash rate is expected, at 4.1%, as the recently released monthly CPI indicator has slowed to 4.9% y/y from 5.4% y/y, its slowest pace of increase since February 2022 and below consensus of 5.2% y/y.

Weekly Focus

Elsewhere in Asia, Chinese data is watched closely by financial markets these days considering the recent weakness in the economy. Overall, both private and national PMIs were better than expected indicating the economy has not fallen completely out of the bed. Authorities came with a range of stimulating measures to the economy this week with a reduction of the required down payment for home-buyers as particularly important given the increasing risk stemming from the housing market.

Week Ahead – RBA and BoC to Kick-Start Key Round of Central Bank Meetings

Besides the aussie, another risk-linked currency will enter the limelight next week and that’s the loonie, with the Bank of Canada holding its own interest rate decision on Wednesday.

As ECB Hike Dilemma Sharpens, Traders Seek Clarity in Inflation Numbers

With Lagarde taking off her ultra-hawk armor at the latest ECB gathering and last week’s business surveys pointing to deepening wounds for the Euro area economy, investors have become skeptical as to whether the ECB should press the hike button again in September. Will the Eurozone preliminary inflation numbers, due out on Thursday at 09:00 GMT, clear the fog? And could traders become willing to buy the euro again?