Rate Expectations Pared Back as PMIs Point to Recession

European stocks have given back the bulk of their gains this morning as flash PMI data points to a possible recession over the remainder of the year.

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets understandably see the weaker activity as potentially triggering a pause in the ECB hiking cycle at the September meeting.

Amazing Nvidia

Nvidia announced STUNNING results when it released its Q2 earnings yesterday after the bell. The company reported $13.5bn sales last quarter, well above its $11bn projection, and said that it expects $16bn sales for next quarter, up from $12.6bn forecast last quarter. And oh, earnings jumped to $2.70 per share, versus $2.09 expected by analysts, and the most-loved chipmaker of the year approved $25bn in share buybacks. There is nothing an investor could ask more.

Today’s Eco Calendar Unlikely to Inspire Trading

Today’s eco calendar is unlikely to inspire trading with July durable goods orders and weekly jobless claims. Speeches by Philly Fed Harker and by Boston Fed Collins are wildcards. Overall market positioning is again more neutral after yesterday’s correction and going into tomorrow’s key Jackson Hole speeches. It lowers the probability to see high profile technical breaks in FI/FX and stock markets.

Bitcoin: Bounce, Rally Yet to Start

Bitcoin touched a low for the week of $25.33K – above the local June lows of $24.7K, fuelling hopes that the uptrend is still in play. Meanwhile, BTCUSD remains below its 200-week average and the lower boundary of its former bull corridor.

EUR/USD Dips Ahead of US Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders

The euro has edged lower on Thursday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0851, down 0.11%.

GBP/USD Bounces Back after Falling 1% in One Day

The publication of news on the UK PMI index yesterday signaled an acceleration of the downturn in business activity. The index value was 42.5 (values below 50 indicate a slowdown in the economy). This is the thirteenth consecutive reading of the index below 50, with readings below 42.5 last recorded during the height of the pandemic in the spring of 2020.

Japan Yen's Mini-Rally Fizzles, Tokyo Core CPI Next

Tokyo Core CPI expected to tick lower to 2.9% US to release jobless claims and durable goods orders later on Thursday USD/JPY put together a mid-week rally with gains of 1% but is considerably lower on Thursday.  In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 145.72, up 0.60%. Markets eye Tokyo Core CPI Japan releases […]

Sunset Market Comentary

On FX markets, the dollar yesterday briefly corrected on lower core yields and a better (US-driven) risk sentiment. However, the greenback today again convincingly retakes its rally since mid-July. Maybe yesterday’s (US) data aren’t the trigger yet for Powell to already formally prepare markets for the end of the central bank’s anti-inflationary crusade.

How Much Trouble China's Economy In and Is There Risk for Global Contagion?

China has long been the world’s growth engine, but that status is under threat as its economic recovery has hit a major stumbling block and the high-growth era seems to be well and truly over. Exports are falling, consumers aren’t spending much, bank lending is slowing and the crisis in the property sector only seems to be deepening. Can the Chinese government navigate its way out of this mess, which is partly its own doing, or is there more pain to come?