Will UK Inflation Data Confirm BoE's Choice to Slow Down?

With investors significantly lowering their implied Bank of England rate path following the slowdown in June’s inflation numbers and the 25bps hike at the Bank’s latest meeting, the spotlight will now turn to the UK inflation data for July, due out on Wednesday at 06:00 GMT. Traders will be eager to find out whether their massive adjustment in their bets seems correct or not, leaving the pound vulnerable to volatile swings.

The Chinese Central Bank Cuts Rates

This morning the Chinese central bank unexpectedly lowered key monetary policy rates given the uncertain outlook for the Chinese economy. The yuan weakened on the back of the rate cut. Furthermore, Chinese economic data (industrial production and retail sales) published this morning also showed weakness in the Chinese economy.

Minutes to RBA's August Meeting Strike a More Optimistic Tone

The minutes of the Reserve Bank Board's August meeting show a further evolution consistent with policy being more firmly on hold.

Crypto Looks Down, Prepares to Jump

The crypto market cap has slightly declined 0.23% to $1.170 trillion in the last 24 hours. The market failed to break above the $1.18 trillion resistance level and entered a bearish phase in the early hours of Tuesday. This contrasts with the performance of the Nasdaq, which rallied on Monday and continued to rise on Tuesday.

Yen's Wings Have Been Clipped by BoJ; Could Data Releases Offer Some Reprieve?

The July 28 Bank of Japan meeting proved less exciting than some market participants anticipated despite the tweak in the yield curve control mechanism introduced. The majority of BoJ members remain dovish despite some relatively optimistic data prints during 2023. Could this week’s data releases have a positive impact on the yen against the euro?

Is Recession Coming? Framework Says Yes

Last year, we released a three-report series that outlined a couple methods to predict recessions and monetary policy pivots. Today, all three major tools still signal a recession within the next year. Despite the odds of a soft landing rising amid resilient economic data, the framework aligns with our base case expectation for a mild recession in early 2024.

Dire Chinese Trade Data

China: Foreign trade data for July was dire reading for the global economy as well as the Chinese domestic economy. Exports declined 14.5% y/y - the biggest decline since the pandemic in 2020 - in a sign of slower external demand. Imports plunged 12.4% y/y raising concerns about weaker domestic demand.

Yen Extends Slide as Consumers Reduce Spending

USD/JPY is down 1% this week Japanese wage growth and personal spending decline The Japanese yen is trading quietly on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 143.10, up 0.42%. The yen is down 1% so far this week. Investors have been focused on the Bank of Japan, amid speculation that it could […]

AUD/USD Maintains Bearish Trend on Disappointing China Data

Commodity currencies across the board tumbled after China’s trade data signaled global economic is in trouble over the short-term.  A steadily improving Chinese economic recovery has not occurred as the domestic economy remains very weak.  This economic report posted some of the weakest data points since early in the pandemic.

US CPI Could Define the Fed's Next Hike

After the Fed said it would be data-dependent about its next rate decision, the latest economic figures have become much more likely to jolt the market. Last week's jobs numbers were a bit of a mixed bag, but Fed officials later said they were largely in line with expectations. That would somewhat imply that the Fed's view that another rate hike is still preserved.