Has Oil Run its Upswing Potential?

Crude oil has rallied more than 10% from the lows two weeks ago. The price of a barrel of Brent rose above $79.50 on Wednesday, its highest level since early May. But the easy part of the journey for the bulls may be over, and a severe battle to stay within the year-long downtrend is now beginning.

US: Inflation Continues to Ease in June, But Remains Too Hot for FOMC 

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-on-month (m/m) in June, a tick below expectations. On a 12-month basis, CPI slipped to 3.0% – its slowest pace since March 2021 – and well off its peak of nearly 9% last June.

Sunset Market Commentary

Today was one stretched countdown to the US inflation numbers without a lot of market fireworks in the run-up to it. Prices at the other side of the Atlantic generally came in slightly below expectations.

As Good a US Inflation Report as We Could Have Realistically Hoped for

Financial markets are buzzing at the US open on Wednesday, with investors buoyed by a very promising inflation report from the US.

June CPI: More Convincing Progress Underway

Summary Today’s report on the Consumer Price Index for June brought good news. Headline consumer price inflation increased 0.2% over the month and 3.0% over the past year. For the latter, this was the lowest reading since March 2021. Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI increased 0.2% (rounded up from 0.16%) over the […]

US Inflation Slows, But Fed Has the Last Word

The US consumer price index slowed to an annual rate of 3.0% in June from 4.0% the previous month. This was slightly below the expected 3.1%. Core inflation slowed to 4.8% from 5.3%, and 5.0% expected. This is the ninth consecutive report where an indicator has been in line or weaker than expected, but we see a different market reaction.

Bank of Canada Takes Their Policy Rate 25 bps Higher 

The Bank of Canada raised the overnight rate by 25 basis points, to 5%, while stating that it will continue with Quantitative Tightening (QT). With the hike, the policy rate is now at its highest level since 2001.

US Inflation: Great Progress, But Risks Remain

Headline inflation is now a fraction of its peak level; however, by itself, shelter’s contribution is greater than the FOMC’s 2.0%yr target.

The Fever is Breaking

US inflation eased to 3%. It’s still not the 2% targeted by the Federal Reserve (Fed), but it’s approaching. Core inflation on the other hand eased more than expected to 4.8%. That’s still more than twice the Fed’s 2% policy target, but again, the US inflation numbers are clearly on the right path, the services inflation including shelter costs is easing, and all this is good news for breaking the Fed hawks back amid mounting tension over the past few weeks.

From "Fast and Furious" to "Frozen" – RBNZ to keep the OCR on hold

The Reserve Bank will leave the OCR at 5.50% at its July policy review. The RBNZ likely sees recent data as in line with their projected peak in the OCR. The accompanying statement should be concise to avoid misinterpretation. The RBNZ might take the opportunity to communicate a more data-driven future approach than communicated in […]