Australian Dollar Slips After Soft Chinese Inflation Data

The Australian dollar continues to show sharp volatility. AUD/USD is down 0.80% on Monday, trading at 0.6637. The decline has erased most of the 1% gains we saw on Friday.

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast

Summarizing the second half of June, the result in the EUR and USD confrontation can be said to be neutral. On Friday, June 30, EUR/USD ended up where it traded on both the 15th and 23rd of June.

USD/JPY Hit Resistance at 145 – Level at Which Japanese Officials Intervened Last Sep

USD/JPY hit resistance at 145 – the level at which Japanese officials intervened in September last year.

The Great Divergence Between the Real Economy and Global Equities

Latest data from key global manufacturing hubs in Asia have indicated more potential weakness ahead in the external demand environment for the second half of 2023. South Korea, a key provider of semiconductors and smartphones for the global economy saw its latest full monthly exports figure decline to -6% year-on-year in June, a lower magnitude of -15.2% recorded in May but lower than expectations of a 3% drop. Overall, it’s nine consecutive months of contraction for South Korea’s exports.

AUD/USD Pares Losses ahead of RBA Rate Decision

The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday, and it’s a coin-toss as to whether the central bank will raise rates for a third straight time or will it take a pause. Traders have priced in a 52% chance of a pause, according to the ASX RBA rate tracker. Just one week ago, the odds of a pause were 70%, after May inflation declined more than expected. Headline CPI fell from 6.8% to 5.6%, its lowest level in 13 months. Core CPI eased to 6.1%, down from 6.7%.

Canadian Dollar Drifting, ISM Manufacturing PMI Next

Canada wrapped up the week with a strong GDP report. The economy is estimated to have gained 0.4% in May, after flatlining in April. The Canadian economy continues to surprise with its resilience despite rising interest rates.

Sunset Market Commentary

Swiss inflation slowed slightly more than expected in July, easing from 0.3% M/M and 2.2% Y/Y in May to 0.1% M/M and 1.7% Y/Y in June. Core CPI also dropped further below the 2% barrier, slowing down from 1.9% Y/Y to 1.8%.

Crypto's Bullish Calm

Bitcoin closed last week at zero, failing to move meaningfully away from the $30K level on good news about spot ETF bids or terrible news about SEC claims against it. As a result, the exchange rate is stomping around $30.6K on Monday. Ethereum has added 4.3% in seven days, to $1960. Other leading altcoins from the top 10 are adding between 0.5% (XRP) and 25% (Solana).

RBA Board Pauses in July, to Take More Time to Assess the Outlook

The clear signal from the June Board meeting that motivated our call for a follow-up move in July has been tempered by today’s decision to pause. Despite this, there remains a strong case for rates to go higher, a message that is still apparent in the Governor’s decision statement.

NASDAQ Analysis: Index Is at 1-year High! Is It Sustainable?

This fad has now passed, and the NASDAQ Composite Index had lulled for some time. Today, however, the index begins the trading day at its highest point in an entire year.