ECB Review

ECB Review – Markets Conclude ECB is Close to Being Done The ECB hiked policy rates by 50bp, as expected, and said it ‘intends’ to hike another 50bp at the March meeting, after at which point it will ‘evaluate’ the subsequent path of its monetary policy rate. Markets took the ECB’s communication as a sign […]

Cliff Notes: As Global Inflation Risks Recede, Market Expectations Build

Key insights from the week that was. This week, we received a set of downbeat updates on the consumer and housing in Australia. Meanwhile, a slew of rate hikes and updated policy guidance from across the US, Europe and the UK gave markets plenty to think about. Beginning in Australia, the week began with a […]

Apple, Amazon, Google Dampen Nood, US NFP and Wages in Focus

Yesterday was, again, a fantastic day of trading for equities, as the less hawkish than expected tone from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) meetings joined the optimistic vibes from the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s ‘disinflationary process’ mention a day before, and all that combined with Facebook’s best […]

Yields Decline Despite Central Bank Tightening

Market movers today Rounding off an eventful week, the main event today will be the US January jobs report. Consensus is looking for a moderation in the non-farm payrolls growth, yet the recent data releases have been mixed. The ADP private sector employment growth was weaker than expected, but the JOLTs data and the Conference […]

Failed Attempt of EUR/USD to Take Out 1.10

Markets It didn’t quite turn out how we expected it to be. Especially on bond markets. Fed Chair Powell and ECB Lagarde missed out on the opportunity to talk up markets towards their envisioned monetary policy paths. In case of the US, we follow some of Powell’s “caution” given the absolute level of the policy […]

RBA to Hike after Worrying Signs for Economy

It had seemed that the RBA was almost done with the rate hikes, as several indicators for the economy were looking shaky. Rising unemployment was cited often. Another factor is that a large number of home loans are due for renewal in a few months, which could put increased pressure on Australian homeowners. If higher […]

US: January Employment Smashed Expectations, Suggesting More Rate Hikes to Come 

The U.S. economy added 517k jobs in January, well above the consensus forecast of 190k. Revisions to the two prior months were substantial, adding 71k to the previously reported figures. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also made annual benchmark revisions to last year’s establishment survey payroll numbers, which incorporated comprehensive new data through March 2022. […]

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets First ECB governors hit the wires one day after raising policy rates by another 50 bps to 2.5% (deposit rate). ECB Vasle kept close to yesterday’s statement, committing to a 50 bps rate hike in March and vowing to keep policy restrictive. ECB Simkus was somewhat more detailed, warning that core inflation hasn’t peaked […]

Weekly Focus

The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England all announced rate hikes this week as expected, but they also sent what markets interpreted to be signals of lower levels of rates in the future than previously thought, and there were rallies in equity and especially bond markets. However, the central banks, […]

Week Ahead – RBA Next to Hike, UK Might Avoid a Recession (For Now)

After the past week’s central bank bonanza, things will quieten down in the coming days, although not completely, as the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep the rate hike theme running. On the data front, the highlights will be Canada’s employment report and the first look at UK GDP in the final quarter of 2022. […]