Today It's All Counting Down to this Afternoon's US January CPI Report

Markets Upcoming key US inflation data didn’t prevent a constructive start to the new trading week. Equities gradually gained traction during European and US dealings. The economic forecasts of the European Commission lowered this and next year’s inflation outlook to 5.9% (from 6.1%) and 2.5% (from 2.6%). 2023 growth was upwardly revised to 0.9% from […]

Pound Steady after Jobs Report

UK wage growth eases The British pound is slightly higher on Tuesday, as the markets digest today’s UK employment report. Wage growth rose by 5.9% in the October-December period, down from 6.5% and the lowest since the three months to July 2022. This was also lower than the forecast of 6.2%. The unemployment rate held […]

CPI to Offer Major Clue on Fed's Next Move

The incoming US CPI data is set to provide a major steer for markets still gripped by the Fed’s ongoing battle against inflation. Risk assets have been reluctant to make sizeable moves of late, as they brace for what could be a blowout January inflation report following blockbuster jobs figures from the same month. Should […]

Why Isn't Gold Responding to Uncertainty?

There are a lot of reasons for investors to seek safe havens, particularly recently. But gold has struggled to reach the $1,900/oz level. Although it could make it that high eventually, it’s still notable that it’s taking so long. There are some fundamental things going on that could explain the phenomenon, as well as some […]

January CPI: Still A Long Way from Mission Accomplished

Summary Inflation is not going away quietly. Consumer prices increased 0.5% in January, the biggest monthly move since October. Firmer food inflation and a rebound in energy prices helped boost the headline number. Excluding food and energy, the core CPI increased 0.4% amid a slight pickup in core goods and a solid 0.5% rise in […]

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets Trading on almost all markets was conditional to the publication of the US January CPI as this report was supposed provide the ‘ultimate reality check’ on the Fed’s (and by extension other central bankers’) call to continue raising rates and to keep them at a higher level for quite some time. The report was […]

Japanese Yen Swings on US Inflation

The Japanese yen has shown some strong movement on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 132.85, up 0.32%. US inflation slows, but less than expected US inflation in January ticked lower to 6.4%, down from 6.5% but higher than the forecast of 6.2%. It was a similar story for the core […]

Hawkish Fed Talk after CPI Report

Market movers today In the US, retail sales figures are the highlight today and it will be interesting to see whether consumer spending continued to cool at the start of 2023, despite the strong labour market. Empire manufacturing for February is also released. After wage growth again surprised on the upside yesterday, the UK inflation […]

But Why?

Looking at the market pricing, you could’ve hardly guessed, but yesterday’s US inflation report was not brilliant. On a monthly basis, the headline inflation ticked higher from 0.1% to 0.5% as expected. But on a yearly basis, both headline and core inflation didn’t ease as much as expected. Core inflation fell from 5.7% to 5.6%, […]

Focus for Global Trading Remains on the US with January Retail Sales

Markets In a first reaction, markets doubted how to react to US CPI release. US Headline consumer prices rose 0.5% M/M and 6.4% Y/Y (from 0.1%MM and 6.5% Y/Y). Core inflation printed at 0.4% M/M and 5.6% Y/Y (from 5.7%). Monthly moves were close to, but higher than, expectations. The report suggests that the disinflationary […]