Fed Decision and US Inflation Stats to Decide Dollar's Fate

A decisive week lies ahead for the dollar, featuring the latest US inflation and retail sales reports, alongside a critical Fed decision. Business surveys suggest inflationary forces continued to abate, although elevated rents might offset some of that. Meanwhile, a half-point rate increase by the Fed is already locked in, putting the emphasis mostly on […]

Week Ahead – Blockbuster End to the Year

US Two blockbuster events will have Wall Street on edge as the disinflation trade may have gotten ahead of itself. The last major piece of economic news before the Fed meets will be the November inflation report which is expected to show pricing pressures are decelerating.  The headline reading from a month ago is expected […]

Another U.S. Interest Rate Hike Looms Next Week

A drop in gasoline prices in November has likely sent U.S. inflation growth lower. We expect next week’s U.S. CPI reading to come in at 7.4%. That’s down from 7.7% in October and a 9.0% peak in June. Food inflation was still likely running almost 11% year-over-year. But a decline in commodity prices means that […]

Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Global Central Banks Continue Along Their Rate Hike Paths

Summary United States: Price Pressures Improving Gradually Amid Resilient Economy The November release of the ISM services index kicked off the week with a surprisingly strong reading on the U.S. economy. Various price metrics released this week showed some continued signs of inflation cooling, but gradually rather than rapidly. Next week: CPI (Tue), Retail Sales […]

The Weekly Bottom Line: Waiting for the Fed

U.S. Highlights Somewhat unexpectedly, the ISM services index accelerated in November, with the business activity sub-index expanding to a level last seen in 2021. The services sector continues to struggle with elevated inflation as the prices paid component of the ISM services index and the services side of the producer price index showed no signs […]

Week Ahead – The Calm Before the Storm

EU There are a number of economic releases on the calendar next week but it’s almost entirely made up of tier two and three data. That includes final PMIs, revised GDP and retail sales. The most notable events for the EU over the next week are speeches by ECB policymakers ahead of the last meeting […]

The Weekly Bottom Line: The Economy Holds on as Rate Hikes Start to Bite

U.S. Highlights Employment rose by 0.2% month-on-month (m/m) for the fourth consecutive month in November, surpassing expectations for a moderate slowdown in job growth. Core PCE inflation for October eased slightly to 5% year-on-year (y/y), but was supported by strong spending growth and a drop in the consumer savings rate to a 17-year low. FOMC […]

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast

EUR/USD: Focus on the US Labor Market The DXY dollar index is down 5% over the past month. This is the largest monthly decline since September 2010. And the American currency lost more than 10% against the euro over the same period. EUR/USD was trading at 0.9541 back on October 28, and it reached the […]

Russian Oil Price Cap Now in Place

Market movers today This week will be quiet in terms of key data releases as markets await the final ECB and Fed meetings of the year on 14 and 15 December. In euro area, October retail sales will be released today, but focus will mostly remain on final ECB comments ahead of the blackout period […]

Investors Refuse to Price in a Fed Rate Above 5%

US stocks fell on Friday, after the latest data showed that Americans got more jobs in November, and more importantly they got a better pay. Wages grew by 0.6% over the month, which was the biggest monthly gain, and the double of what was penciled on by analysts. Of course, the news was great for […]